Absolutely Not The Daily Troll-o-Graph

This is being portrayed as the most unpredictable election since, the last one, all GE's are fundamentally unpredictable but looking down the line its actually quite predictable. There are, barring something of a greater than a 50/1 chance not going to be a majority for Corbyn and Labour. The very best chance Corbyn has is a wafer thin majority with the SNP so Corbyn needs a minimum of 273 seats to have ANY chance of forming a government. Assuming a worst case scenario envisaged by most pollsters there are two realistic outcomes 1) A Conservative Majority - Ergo "game over" 2) A Hung Parliament with a remoaner majority. We need only examine the latter option. A Hung Parliament The likely worst case scenario is a Conservative Party with about 270 or above number of seats. That would leave 372 MP's against the Tories, so lets allocate them as they will fall in terms of certainty on the high side. SNP - 50 seats Limp Dim's 45 seats PC 3 Seats ...

Britain is heading for a December general election after prime minister Boris Johnson won the backing of the opposition Labour party for a poll designed to break the deadlock over Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader, declared on Tuesday that his conditions for an early election had now been met and that he was satisfied that a “no-deal” Brexit had been taken off the table. Mr Johnson’s decision to hold a pre-Christmas election before he has delivered Brexit is a huge political gamble, which gives Remain voters a final chance to stop Britain leaving the EU. If Mr Johnson wins the election, he says he will deliver the Brexit deal he agreed in Brussels this month, but it is far from clear that he will secure the convincing House of Commons majority he needs to push through his plan. Labour and the Scottish National party are promising a second EU referendum that could see Brexit reversed, while the Liberal Democrats say they would revoke the Article 50 exit process if they wo...

Well, its try, try, and try again, if at first you don't succeed. However, for some reason Boris does not want to bring the WAB back, and I understand why, it will be amended to death to something it never was or ever will be. The fact is, there is a way to put Labour and the rest of the opposition to shame, strip the treaty out of the WAB as May did on one occasion which means its only a vote on the agreement. That cannot be amended, otherwise you amend the treaty itself. Therefore Boris could attempt to pass the treaty alone, make it clear its a debate and vote purely on the text of the treaty, its pass or fail. If the bill falls then there is no point progressing to the political declaration and that really is "stalemate" and demonstrably so, there is then, literally nowhere else to go and more importantly its clearly demonstrated to the EU that its a 100% impasse. Boris would then have to tell the EU the news (as if they don't already know) and state...

As we know, Macron is holding out for some form of clarity from the UK and of course, Boris knows that, so clarity is not really what Boris wants. Boris is calling for an election, but we know that the election timetable is phenomenally tight, he can in fact, sit tight and let the opposition sweat it out. Its either pass my WAB unmodified OR vote for a GE, its Hobson's choice, Boris riding high in the polls means he'll likely win a comfortable majority and then ram the bill through quite easily. On the alternative side, the remoaners are in a pincer movement. The EU wants this done, Macron really wants it done. Even if they can get the extension they want to 31st January they know that time is running out for a GE, and if it doesn't happen by Dec 12th then it can't happen until the new year and by then they are hard up against the deadline again with three weeks to secure another extension. And then the problems multiply, the UK has had another 4 months, dec...

Boris Johnson has been offered a route to securing the pre-Christmas election that he has been seeking, through a plan that would only require the support of a simple majority of MPs. With most Labour MPs still against the idea of a snap election, the prime minister looks set to lose his bid to secure a December poll on Monday in a vote that requires the backing of two-thirds of MPs. Other parties are also opposing an election until the EU has granted a three-month Brexit delay, although the DUP hinted on Saturday it could back the move. However, in a sign that the coalition opposed to an election is under strain, the Liberal Democrats have drawn up a plan allowing Johnson to secure a December poll with a simple majority of MPs, with the support of Jo Swinson’s party and the SNP. Under the one-page Lib Dem bill, the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act would be amended to state that the next election would take place on 9 December, three days earlier than under Johnson’s plans. It stat...

Just when you think you can't hear anything funnier, Mr Corbyn once again manages to surpass even himself. Corbyn was on "Richard and Judy" this morning and when Richard said "Assuming I'd just heard from the EU that they will extend to the end of January, would you then have a GE?" Corbyn managed to tie himself in more knots with obfuscation but eventually said he would vote for a GE if no deal was off the table. To which, Richard said "Yes, but that's why you wanted the extension to take no deal off the table" Mr Corbyn replied to the effect "ahh, but if we call a GE, Boris Johnson could set the date for after the 31st of January and dissolve parliament AND, if we pass the current WA that contains a clause that would still allow a WTO Brexit so "no deal" won't be off the table." So there you have it, you can't have a GE and you can't pass the WAB so Corbyn is living in a bunker. While that's...

There's a strong sense of deja vu in the EU's Brexit extension discussions. As Westminster waits and the prime minister calls for an official EU decision to be made, France is acting as a spoke in the wheels. Much as it did back in spring when leaders debated the April Brexit extension. A consensus is forming amongst most EU countries, including powerful Germany, to grant the three-month delay outlined in Boris Johnson's letter to Brussels requesting a new Brexit extension. They hope to formally announce this on Friday. Ambassadors representing the 27 EU leaders are expected to meet mid-morning in Brussels. But France worries a 12-week extension could encourage more UK indecisiveness or a general election which may prove inconclusive on Brexit. President Emmanuel Macron favours a short, sharp Brexit delay; encouraging MPs and the UK government to concentrate on ratifying the newly-negotiated Brexit deal. Mr Macron is fed up with the more than three-year EU foc...

We seem to have hit a hiatus pretty much on all sides. Opposition. The opposition are prepared (because they can't refuse) to proceed with the WAB, but won't agree to not make it an amendment Christmas tree.  With regards to an election, they seem to keep saying they want one but invent ever more complex arguments and conditions for one. Apparently 140 Labour MP's have said they won't vote for one even if Corbyn three line whips them. The SNP want an election before the Salmond court case hit the news in January. They still don't seem to be able to get the numbers to push through a SR. In short they are stuck. Government The government would like the WAB through, but not if it amended to something they can't even recognise for fear of what that might signal to the electorate as a Brexit sell out. Boris would like a GE but the cabinet are apparently split over the GE or WAB route and as the days tick by, the complication of Christmas, dark d...

The EU is set to accept the Boris Johnson’s reluctant request for a Brexit delay up to 31 January with the option of leaving earlier after Donald Tusk said he would recommend to heads of state and government that they sign it off without need for a summit. “Following PM’s decision to pause the process of ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement, and in order to avoid a no-deal #Brexit, I will recommend the EU27 accept the UK request for an extension,” Tusk tweeted. “For this I will propose a written procedure.” The European council president’s announcement followed MPs’ rejection of the prime minister’s timetable for passing the withdrawal agreement. Before Tusk’s tweet, a spokeswoman for the European commission made a pointed reference to the new exit date sought in the extension request sent on Saturday. “The European commission takes note of tonight’s result and expects the UK government to inform us about the next steps,” the spokeswoman said. “Donald Tusk [president of the...

In withholding support for Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal until the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) has passed, MPs have changed the dynamics of the Brexit debate once again. Not only have they forced the government to request an Article 50 extension, but they may have turned the tables on – and could change the shape of – the WAB. This has left the government on the back foot, unable to guarantee leaving on 31 October, and reliant on how others – including the Speaker, Parliament and the EU respond to the latest stalemate. Having returned triumphant from the EU with a revised Brexit deal, Boris Johnson’s next challenge was clear: convince MPs to approve his deal in a straightforward yes/no vote, with Parliament’s approval removing the obligation in EU (Withdrawal) (No.2) Act (the Benn Act) to request an extension from the EU. With that hurdle passed, the government could have introduced the WAB – which needs to make it onto the statute book before the deal can take effect. The gov...

The Government's Operation Yellowhammer contingency plan to handle a no-deal Brexit is being "triggered", Michael Gove has said. The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, who is in charge of no-deal preparations, said the risk of such a scenario had increased after MPs forced the Government to ask Brussels for another Brexit delay. The Prime Minister was required by law to ask the EU for an extension after MPs voted in favour of Sir Oliver Letwin's amendment in the Commons yesterday. But in a move which sparked a major backlash, Boris Johnson got a senior diplomat to send an unsigned photocopy of a letter asking for an extension. Asked if he could guarantee that the UK would leave the EU by Halloween, Mr Gove said: "Yes, that's our determined policy.  "We know that the EU want us to leave, we know that we have a deal that allows us to leave." Mr Gove told Sky News's Sophy Ridge On Sunday: "We are going to leave by October 31st. We...

Boris Johnson has sent an unsigned request to the EU for a delay to Brexit - followed by a signed one arguing against it. The PM sent three letters in all - an unsigned photocopy of the request as outlined by the Benn Act; an explanatory note from the UK's ambassador to the EU; and a personal, signed, letter saying why he does not want a delay. Unsigned letter Dear Mr President, The UK Parliament has passed the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019. Its provisions now require Her Majesty's Government to seek an extension of the period provided under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union, including as applied by Article 106a of the Euratom Treaty, currently due to expire at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 October 2019, until 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. I am writing therefore to inform the European Council that the United Kingdom is seeking a further extension to the period provided under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union, including as applied by A...

There was anger in Downing Street last night over a parliamentary move that could deny Boris Johnson a clean vote on his Brexit deal today. Former Tory MP Sir Oliver Letwin proposed an amendment yesterday that would withhold Parliament's final support for the agreement until all the necessary legislation for it is approved. If passed today, the amendment will prevent MPs from holding the so-called 'meaningful vote' on the Prime Minister's deal. The Government would also have to ask the EU for an extension to Britain's withdrawal thanks to the so-called Benn Act, passed by MPs last month, which forces the Prime Minister to apply to delay Brexit until January 31 if his deal is not passed in the Commons. Last night, Government sources accused supporters of the controversial amendment – which is likely to pass with Labour backing – of trying to frustrate Brexit. One source said: 'If it passes, it's an act of sabotage dressed up as reasonableness. MPs are...