This is being portrayed as the most unpredictable election since, the last one, all GE's are fundamentally unpredictable but looking down the line its actually quite predictable.
There are, barring something of a greater than a 50/1 chance not going to be a majority for Corbyn and Labour. The very best chance Corbyn has is a wafer thin majority with the SNP so Corbyn needs a minimum of 273 seats to have ANY chance of forming a government.
Assuming a worst case scenario envisaged by most pollsters there are two realistic outcomes
1) A Conservative Majority - Ergo "game over"
2) A Hung Parliament with a remoaner majority.
We need only examine the latter option.
A Hung Parliament
The likely worst case scenario is a Conservative Party with about 270 or above number of seats.
That would leave 372 MP's against the Tories, so lets allocate them as they will fall in terms of certainty on the high side.
SNP - 50 seats
Limp Dim's 45 seats
PC 3 Seats
Green 1 seat
Cringe UK 0 seats
DUP 9 Seats
SF - 7 seats
Others 5 seats
That would leave Labour a very generous 252 seats.
That would mean a Labour/SNP coalition would have 302 seats - That won't work
So the only option is a Labour/SNP/Limp Dim coalition of 347 - an effective majority of 25 plus other small party "sympathetic" to that cause.
The ONLY option is making Corbyn PM, the SNP could probably get away with that if they were offered a second Jock referendum, so they could be brought in to Labour.
The Limp Dim's simply won't entertain Corbyn, but lets assume, for the sake of Brexit they swallow their differences on a "confidence and supply" arrangement and put Corbyn in No 10.
Corbyn then goes back to the EU and attempts to negotiate his super soft Brexit, and lets assume the worst case scenario that the EU welcomes him with open arms negotiates a super soft brexit with CU and SM and he comes back.
The Limp Dim's can live with this because its going to a SR up against remain. The referendum legislation is put through and we go to the polls on a final, definitive, and binding referendum.
Because its a gerrymandered referendum they win it hands down on an 80% remain vote on what will certainly be a lower turnout than the first. Article 50 is revoked and the country returns to domestic politics.
Corbyn now wants to run his "transformative agenda", for the SNP, the price is a Scottish SR on independence and there is absolutely no way the Limp Dim's will sign up to that, but lets assume they do.
The Limp Dim's would now have to get on board with massive Labour spending, simply something they certainly couldn't do.
In short, the coalition, one way or another will have to fall apart in a mass of acrimonious splits and very quickly Boris jumps in with a VONC and we are at another GE.
The following GE
The Brexit Party will rise back upto 30-35% in the polls as leave voters angry at the gerrymandered referendum, The Tory Party will likely suffer like they did in the EU elections and fall to 10-15% in the polls and facing possible extinction.
The Tory party will have to accept the inevitable electoral maths that the anger level amongst leavers is now at fever pitch and the only route back into power and politics is to ape the Brexit Party.
Therefore, both the Tory Party and Brexit Party will form a pact with the Brexit Party standing in all the hard Labour seats and the Tories in all the southern seats.
By this method, a Tory/TBP coalition would be formed and the public on the leave side will be delighted with that, it gives them approximately 50% TBP support to ensure that the Tories can't go back on their word and it gives those worried about the TBP lack of governmental experience is covered by the Tories.
It would be a government able to both deliver Brexit and to govern competently.
The EU would be told "let our people go" and if you want to faff around we'll just cut the money off and make you throw us out, we'll repeal all enabling legislation and head off into the sunset.
So which ever way this goes, Brexit will be delivered.
Comments
Post a Comment