As we know, Macron is holding out for some form of clarity from the UK and of course, Boris knows that, so clarity is not really what Boris wants.
Boris is calling for an election, but we know that the election timetable is phenomenally tight, he can in fact, sit tight and let the opposition sweat it out.
Its either pass my WAB unmodified OR vote for a GE, its Hobson's choice, Boris riding high in the polls means he'll likely win a comfortable majority and then ram the bill through quite easily.
On the alternative side, the remoaners are in a pincer movement. The EU wants this done, Macron really wants it done. Even if they can get the extension they want to 31st January they know that time is running out for a GE, and if it doesn't happen by Dec 12th then it can't happen until the new year and by then they are hard up against the deadline again with three weeks to secure another extension.
And then the problems multiply, the UK has had another 4 months, decided nothing and moved nowhere, is, by legislation again forcing a hostage PM to ask for an extension he doesn't want and this time Macron is apoplectic and fully convinced that the UK won't do anything. So its likely that the Macron coalition starts to grow and if there is any further extension it will be on clear specified actions that MUST take place and if the UK isn't prepared to accept that, then there's no extension and the UK is out.
I've no doubt the EU, having watched what's happening have done their maths and they fully realise exactly what I have outlined, that a 4 month extension without clear conditions that lead to resolution that there is no point in offering an extension.
However, they are equally seized of the fact that such a position may well be seen as highly political with Boris riding high in the polls, Corbyn running shy of a GE and no prospect of a second referendum nowhere in sight and even if it was, it would change nothing.
So the EU have a very stark choice, either extend for something close to a year to take a non political position and face more internal splits and a further delay to Macron's plans and splits left right and centre in the EU, offer a flex extension to get the WA passed, having been told by Boris that if its amended in a way he doesn't like it will be pulled.
Therefore, the ONLY way to get the deal passed is to change parliament so that it can be passed, and that means a GE and backing Boris.
Say what you like about Boris, but he's a phenomenal political operator to have hamstrung the EU and the opposition without even having anything close to a majority. That's the kind of PM I can get on board with.
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