Labour slips to second place behind Farage’s party in new poll
Daily Telegraph 04/08/26
Reform UK has regained its lead over Labour in a YouGov poll that suggests the “Burnham bounce” has subsided.
Andy Burnham’s popularity was credited with ending Reform’s long period of poll dominance last week as a first voting intention survey in 16 months saw Nigel Farage’s party fall to second place.
However, the latest YouGov voting intention survey puts Reform on 23 per cent, up one percentage point and ahead of Labour on an unchanged 22 per cent.
Dr Patrick English, the pollster’s head of elections and political data, told The Telegraph: “I would say that there certainly has been a positive response from the British public to Labour’s removal of Keir Starmer and replacement with Andy Burnham, who is currently the most positively rated party leader that we are measuring.
“There has been a response there, and I think that’s to be expected, but even though Burnham leads our favourability ratings he is not hugely popular. So I don’t think we should expect a massive surge in Labour support, and I would caution expectations in that regard because the British public still don’t think that the Government is doing a brilliant job.
“They still don’t think they’re addressing their concerns around the cost of living and around immigration, and they’re going to want to see actual improvement and actual changes in their day-to-day lives before they start giving Labour more reward in the polls and more reward at the ballot box.”
Last week, a poll by More in Common put Labour ahead of Reform for the first time in more than a year, with Mr Burnham’s party on 28 per cent to Reform’s 24 per cent.
A YouGov poll carried out in Mr Burnham’s first week as Prime Minister found that Labour had gained four percentage points, while Reform had lost two.
The new Prime Minister used his first week to unveil a number of policies aimed at helping address cost of living pressures, including a cut to VAT on energy bills.
In last week’s YouGov survey, Labour and Reform were tied at 22 per cent and this week, Reform nudged ahead. The Tories were at 19 per cent, down two points week-on-week.
The first YouGov favourability ratings of Mr Burnham’s premiership showed him with a net score of three, while Mr Farage’s net score was minus 46.
The Telegraph’s poll tracker – which creates a weighted average of all leading pollsters – shows that Reform maintains a narrow overall lead (24.7 per cent), with Labour at 23 per cent and the Tories at 23 per cent.
However, controversy surrounding donations to the Reform leader have taken their toll on the party’s standing.
Reform averaged 30.5 per cent at its peak last September, when Labour was polling at around 20 per cent and the Tories at around 17.5 per cent.
The party’s declining popularity in recent months comes as Mr Farage faces two parliamentary inquiries into allegations that he failed to declare donations he had received before becoming an MP properly.
Mr Farage insisted he had broken no rules and resigned his seat to trigger a by-election in Clacton next Thursday, in which the main political parties have refused to field candidates.
The inquiries are postponed during the by-election, but will resume after the vote.
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