‘Burnham premium’ predicted to increase average bill by £500 by 2030
Daily Telegraph 30/07/26
Labour is planning an £18bn tax raid on millions of families across England, it can be revealed.
New figures, seen by The Telegraph, show that the national council tax take is set to increase by 43 per cent by 2030, netting £58.8bn.
The rise would add another £500 to average council tax bills by the end of the decade, despite Andy Burnham’s pledge to make tackling the cost of living his number one priority.
The Conservatives branded the tax raid – which would hit 25.6m homes in England – the “Burnham premium”, claiming it would increase bills “in every postcode”.
They claimed Mr Burnham’s plans to roll out fiscal devolution to mayors could push bills higher still.
The Prime Minister is set to lay out his fiscal devolution plans, first revealed by The Telegraph, on Friday.
Local authorities netted £41.2bn from council tax in 2024/2025, but a series of parliamentary questions has revealed that figure will soar by more than £17bn to £58.8bn by 2030/31.
The questions also revealed that, up to 2030/31, the annual change in the council tax level was expected to be between 4.3 per cent and 4.4 per cent. This is much higher than the current CPI inflation rate of 2.6 per cent.
This is the first time the Treasury has publicly stated its expectations for total council tax take in England alone. Its figures were sent to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent financial watchdog.
The planned increase in council tax bills would mean people living in average Band D properties would pay £556 more annually by 2030.
In 2025/26, the average Band D household in England paid £2,280 in council tax. Applying the Treasury’s expected annual increases indicates that the rate would rise to £2,836 by 2030/31.
Earlier this week, Mr Burnham had ruled out any suggestion of council tax reform during his premiership.
Sir James Cleverly, the shadow communities secretary, said the Prime Minister’s plans to impose Manchester-style mayors across the country would push the council tax bill even higher.
“Andy Burnham is right to want to boost growth across our communities, but his model of Manchesterism is a recipe for soaring taxes in every post code,” he said.
“Labour have already baked in £18bn of council tax rises, and now former Manchester mayor Burnham wants to go further and impose his high-tax regional model across England.”
The strategic authorities headed by these mayors would be able to add a premium on council tax in the form of precepts.
Since Mr Burnham was elected as Greater Manchester mayor in 2017, the mayoral council tax precept for a Band D property (not including police) has increased by 127 per cent from £68 to £154.
On Friday, Mr Burnham is expected to announce plans to hand mayors billions of pounds of income tax for the first time, as revealed by The Telegraph earlier this month.
The “income tax-sharing” plan will give some English mayors a share of income tax revenue from their area. Officials believe this will encourage them to pursue higher economic growth.
It is understood that the policy will probably apply to the seven most senior regional mayoralties, six of which are held by Labour. They include London, Liverpool and Greater Manchester.
No 10 did not say how much income tax councils would be able to access once the reforms were introduced, adding that the decision would be made in the Budget.
‘I know what it’s like to be ignored by Westminster’
Announcing the reforms, Mr Burnham said: “I said we’d take power out of Westminster and carry it into every postcode in the country. Today, we make good on that promise.
“Under our plans, more of the taxes raised in a community will stay in that community. Soon, every local leader will have the power and resources to improve public transport, build homes and create jobs.
“I know what it’s like to be ignored by politicians in Westminster. I’m not going to make that same mistake now I’m PM.”
However, Sir James called the planned changes “top-down regionalism” and warned they would take power away from local communities. He said: “What works in Manchester won’t be the same for Essex, Cornwall or Cumbria.”
Business leaders warned the devolution could lead to more paperwork and taxes for the private sector.
Kate Shoesmith, the director of policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said the money “must be focused on the practical barriers businesses face every day, from skills and transport to infrastructure and planning”.
A Ministry of Housing, Local Government and Communities spokesman said: “Councils have not yet set tax rates beyond this year, and it’s inaccurate to suggest so.
“Individual councils decide the level of council tax in their areas, taking into consideration a range of local factors, but we expect them to fully take into account the impact on taxpayers.”
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