Labour are losing Scotland (again)

Today, I am writing to you from the Shetland Islands, where Nigel Farage is on the campaign trail as Reform attempts to make headway in Scotland. With the Holyrood elections fast approaching, a fascinating story is unfolding. After reaching its nadir only a couple of years ago, the SNP could be about to regain their majority. Annabel Denham, Senior Political Commentator Daily Telegraph 14/04/26 Two years ago, the SNP was in the doldrums. It had lost 38 Westminster seats, a chastening result and its worst since 2010. A contrite John Swinney, the Party’s third leader in two years, described the result as “very, very difficult and damaging”. The party was being interrogated over finance irregularities, and its CEO investigated for embezzlement.

For all Nicola Sturgeon’s electoral success, her policy objectives had been a disaster, resulting in a stagnant education attainment gap, record-high drug deaths, worsening health outcomes, deteriorating public services and a large fiscal deficit. Now, in a reversal extraordinary even in these febrile times, a YouGov poll predicts the SNP will be the largest party in the Holyrood election on May 7, with an overall majority for the first time since 2011. Yet this is not down to a surge in SNP support, which is still way down from its 2021 result. The real story lies elsewhere, in the collapse of Labour’s support. Once seeing itself as the natural party of government in Scotland, which is why Tony Blair’s government gave the Scots the gift of devolution, it now faces the humiliating prospect of its lowest-ever Holyrood seat tally. Two years ago, Anas Sarwar was widely tipped as Scotland’s next first minister. Now, Labour could be shunted into third, maybe even fourth, place. The Scottish Labour leader has made no secret of his frustration with the Starmer administration, even calling for the Prime Minister to resign back in February, a move which fell flat when other would-be rebels blocked their ears and averted their eyes. At a leaders debate on Sunday, Sarwar made no reference to Keir Starmer nor UK policies. Instead he laid out a series of pledges of his own which appeared to position Scottish Labour as a centrist force: more government spending, of course, but also a promise to lift property taxes, a childcare tax break and cutting business rates. It didn’t set the bagpipes skirling in Sauchiehall Street. Meanwhile, the SNP continues to benefit from a reliable nationalist base of roughly 35 per cent, amplified by a fragmented opposition. Swinney, who took a gamble and is campaigning hard on independence, has suggested this vote might give the SNP a fresh mandate for a referendum. Separatist parties – the SNP and the Greens – would secure 78 seats, against 51 supporting the union. Today, I’m in the Shetland Islands with Reform, which is engaged in the three-way battle for second place, against Labour yes, but also the Scottish Greens. Nigel Farage believes Labour being shunted into third place would be “seismic”. Why Shetland? “It’s symbolic,” he says. “It shows we are a truly national party.” Then he adds, smiling, “and it’s a fun way to spend a morning”. On a walkabout in Lerwick, I speak to a blue-haired pagan who has joined a group of placard-wielding locals noisily condemning Farage’s immigration plans. The group say he is “welcome here, but his politics isn’t”. Reform is polling at 20 per cent in this constituency, however. YouGov polling suggests the SNP will get a majority in Holyrood but that Reform will gain twenty seats Scottish Reform leader Malcolm Offord – an erstwhile junior minister in the House of Lords who defected from the Tories in November – is convinced that the party is winning voters over with a mix of economic revival, restoration of national confidence and a promise to fix an asylum system which has left Glasgow housing more illegal migrants and refugees than any other part of the country. However, Offord is really a businessman, not a natural politician like his boss. He faces an uphill struggle. His media performances have been stilted at times, and he’s had to apologise for a homophobic joke disinterred by grievance archaeologists. Swinney opportunistically claimed this ancient nastiness made Offord “unfit for office”. Arguably, such signs of political inexperience offer a useful point of differentiation from the computerspeak of the old parties, helping to distance Reform from the establishment. Be that as it may, Farage is convinced his party is on the cusp of a breakthrough in Scotland. Reform may still be in its infancy north of the border, but it is no longer invisible.