‘Extremely doubtful’ SNP’s plans to bankroll Scotland with oil and gas production in the North Sea will be successful
Source - Daily Telegraph - 30/10/22
Nicola Sturgeon's plan to kickstart the economy of an independent Scotland through North Sea oil and gas revenues has been rubbished by a world-leading economist behind Norway's £1 trillion oil fund.
In her keynote speech at the SNP conference earlier this month, The First Minister said a £20 billion fund would be created within the first 10 years of independence to keep the country's economy afloat.
The “Building a New Scotland Fund” would be bankrolled by North Sea revenues, Scottish Government borrowing and other “windfall income”, the SNP leader has said.
However, Tony Mackay, an Inverness-based economist who first proposed establishing a wealth fund with Norway's oil and gas revenues alongside economist Terje Lind in the early seventies, told the Sunday Times it was “extremely doubtful” there would be enough oil and gas production in the North Sea to finance the fund.
Mr Mackay, who now serves as an adviser to Norway's energy ministry, told the The Sunday Times: “The Norwegian oil fund has been very successful, more successful than I ever imagined.
“However, I have many doubts over this proposal for a New Scotland Fund because I believe future oil and gas revenues will be very small in the first decade of independence.
“North Sea oil and gas production has declined massively in recent years as many fields have ceased production. Only a few remain in comparison with the 1970-2000 period.”
“The SNP's policy towards future developments is far from clear and the Scottish Greens are strongly opposed. How a New Scotland Fund would be financed is therefore very unclear.”
His comments come ahead of a planned visit from the newly-elected Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to Scotland who will also hold a meeting with Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, on Monday to discuss resetting the strategy on the Union.
While an exact date has not yet been announced, Mr Sunak is expected to arrive “in the next few weeks,” The Herald reported.
Nationalist campaigners have long used the North Sea Oil industry to convince Scottish voters of the benefits of independence.
During the “Yes” campaign in 2014, Alex Salmond repeatedly said the industry belonged to Scotland alone.
The proposed fund has provoked a backlash from environmentalists who have accused Ms Sturgeon of reneging on her promise to shift away from fossil fuels and drive towards net-zero carbon emissions.
A Scottish government spokesman has insisted it is still opposed to new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea and that “unlimited extraction of fossil fuels is not consistent with our climate obligations”.
Question marks about the fund’s viability is the latest in a series of blows to the SNP’s economic strategy for an independent Scotland.
Last week, Ms Sturgeon had to fend off accusations of lying after experts and EU insiders excoriated her insistence a separate Scotland in the EU could avoid committing to the euro and move to a Scottish pound.
Rejecting the accusation by Mr Ross, she argued that a range of existing EU members did not use the single currency.
However, Mr Ross pointed out that all countries in the EU have to commit to the single currency, with insiders warning that the rules would be more stringently applied to new members since the Brexit vote in 2016.
He cited four unnamed Brussels sources in a report from The Times who stated a separate Scotland would have to commit to the euro, with one saying: “No euro, no membership.”
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