I have in recent weeks poo-poo'd the possibility of a second referendum rather than a GE within a matter of weeks.
This was based on two significant assumptions
1) That Corbyn wanted a GE rather than a SR and he has set out his post conference Brexit stance and stuck to it. Therefore, the party would be whipped to support his position and unless there was a mass revolt, then assuming most of the government vote against a SR, it has no chance of gaining a simple majority.
2) There are at least 5 perennial Labour Brexiteers, and another 35 or so Labour MP's who are dead set against a SR. A number of those are in the process of being deselected or have already stated they would stand down.
Therefore, if a SR motion was called, it would be near certain to lose. Therefore the only option available to the opposition was a GE.
So what's changed?
News came out today of an internal Labour coup, the rumour is that John McDonkey is running a coup, taking away Corbyn's inner circle and they are busy running a pogrom purge of most of the people who are allied to Corbyn.
The spin story cover is that this is a reorganisation for a GE and reallocating people, but it seems that random people are being called in from the leaders office for interview and are being denied any knowledge of what the interviews are about and they are being refused union representation at the interviews. (oh the irony).
The question many would ask would be "Why not ask Corbyn to resign and appoint another leader?"
The answer to this is likely the following;-
1) Corbyn doesn't want to resign, it would look like he'd failed.
2) They don't want to be seen to be dumping him immediately before an election.
3) They are terrified a GE is forced when they have no leader.
So why would Corbyn go along with this?
There are a number of reasons, it clear that the shadow cabinet have all moved to a pure referendum position, most of them openly and haven't been sacked. In addition to that, the front benchers who were 100% behind Corbyn on a second referendum like Rebbecca Wrong-Daily and Angela NoBrainer have all been conspicuous by their gradual distancing from Corbyn, particularly when Rebbecca Wrong-Daily distanced her position from Corbyn.
So what's been agreed behind the scenes?
1) Corbyn can remain as official leader, but there will be a nominated interim leader - John McDonkey and he will decide policy. But that will be kept a secret.
2) That policy will be communicated through aids that populate Corbyn's office to ensure that nothing goes in or out without McDonkey's say so.
3) Corbyn will do as he is told, and he gets to keep his position, but he will likely have to move to a second referendum position this week.
4) That if they win an election he can remain PM for a year or so under the same arrangements, at which point he'll stand down and not put himself up for re-election.
So what does this change?
With McDonkey in effective charge Labour will pivot on Saturday 19th to a second referendum vote. The MP's won't be told what's happened, they'll be instructed to vote for a SR the day before and heavily pressured by the whips to see if they have the numbers.
My guess is, even if its whipped it will be phenomenally tight, they may even be looking for more Tory support from some of the wets still left in the Tory party and most of the the defected Tories would vote for it.
That's when their problems really start. They may have to oust Boris with a VONC and force Corbyn to stand aside for a national unity leader, but they won't bother unless they think they have the votes to push on with legislation.
So Saturday 19th October becomes the day we find out if they have the numbers, and if they do, a VONC may follow very shortly afterwards.
However, their plans might be superseded if, as i suspect may happen, Boris resigns the government on the same morning and throws all their plans into disarray.
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