A Deal Done Is Not A Done Deal.

Boris Johnson faces a daunting task in trying to secure parliamentary approval for his Brexit deal after Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party came out against the new withdrawal agreement. Analysis by the Financial Times suggests that unless the prime minister can persuade the DUP to drop its opposition, or persuade several Labour MPs or independent parliamentarians to support the deal, Mr Johnson will struggle to win a House of Commons majority. 

The FT estimates 321 MPs could vote against the deal, with 318 supporting it. Many members have yet to declare how they will vote when the Commons considers Mr Johnson’s deal on Saturday. It will be the first Saturday sitting since Argentina’s invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982. 

 The Conservatives do not have a majority in the House, so Mr Johnson has to assemble a coalition of MPs to vote for his Brexit deal. Out of the 287 Tory MPs, nearly all are expected to back the deal, including most of the 28 hardline Eurosceptic Conservatives — dubbed the Spartans — who voted repeatedly against Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement. Government whips who serve as business managers in the Commons will turn the screws on Tory MPs over the next 48 hours. 

“Our whipping is going to be medieval,” said one government official. The Spartans belong to the European Research Group of pro-Brexit Tory MPs, whose leader Steve Baker has already indicated he will vote for the deal. “We’ll meet on Saturday morning to decide whether to support it,” said one senior ERG member. Downing Street had expected three to five Spartans not to back Mr Johnson’s deal before it was unveiled on Thursday, but none have so far come out against. 

The next challenge for Mr Johnson is to win over 23 independent Conservatives — former Tory MPs who have had the party whip removed. At least three are unlikely to back the deal: Dominic Grieve, Guto Bebb and Justine Greening. Most of the other 20 have yet to declare their voting intentions, but the majority are expected to support the agreement, according to Nicholas Soames, the Tory grandee who was among those to have the whip removed. 

Our whipping is going to be medieval Government official Mark Spencer, Conservative chief whip, told the cabinet on Wednesday that he thought 15 independent Tories would rally behind the deal. Backing the revised withdrawal agreement could give them a route back into the Conservative party. But if Mr Johnson is successful in winning over the Spartans and independent Conservatives, there is still no Commons majority for a deal. 

Without the DUP, the prime minister’s efforts will be partly focused on how many other independent MPs mainly former Labour parliamentarians can be persuaded to back his agreement. Three whipless MPs former Labour members Ian Austin and Frank Field, plus ex-Liberal Democrat Stephen Lloyd are expected to vote for the deal. 

If Mr Johnson fails to garner much support among these independent MPs, his last hope is to woo Labour against a backdrop of party leader Jeremy Corbyn pledging to oppose the deal. Until now the number of rebel Labour MPs talking to Downing Street about supporting Mr Johnson’s deal has been only in single figures up to nine, who mainly represent Leave constituencies. 

They are not all certain to back the agreement. Many Labour MPs went cold on supporting Mr Johnson after he last month demanded that the EU rewrite the terms of the UK’s future relationship with the bloc to allow Britain to substantially diverge from European rules after Brexit. Recommended Brexit Johnson gambles on winning over DUP with Brexit deal Stephen Kinnock, one of 17 Labour MPs supporting the case for a Brexit deal, said the prime minister’s stance had “rung alarm bells among Labour MPs”. 

But Mr Johnson appears to have backtracked, with the revised political declaration on future relations between the UK and the EU stating there should be “common high standards” between the two sides on “state aid, competition, social and employment”. While that could increase the number of rebel Labour MPs backing Mr Johnson’s deal, some said he had “alienated” them. “Theresa May made painstaking efforts to try to bring us on board. 

Boris Johnson hasn’t really tried,” said one. The Scottish National party’s 35 MPs and the 19 Liberal Democrats are expected to vote against Mr Johnson’s deal. Plaid Cymru’s four MPs and the single Green are also set to reject it.