Trump has ended the Chagos deal, regardless of what Starmer says

The US president was right to kibosh the PM’s sell-out treaty and now it looks dead in the water Daily Telegraph 22/01/26 They laughed at me when I said Chagos would become one of the major issues of this Parliament, but it has now appeared in Keir Starmer’s rear-view mirror like a looming juggernaut. It’s an issue that I believe could yet bulldoze the Government.

I put down questions after the election to the newly burnished Starmerite lieutenants, enquiring as to their intentions for the British Indian Ocean territory. Their answers were characteristically deceptive – and in the year and a half since, ministers have continued to act both incompetently and disingenuously. And now their entire Chagos plan has exploded like a bunker buster dropped on Labour HQ. The Prime Minister only has himself to blame. He ignored the many opponents to this bizarre deal, even as their voices grew louder – whether in the public, in the media, or in the House of Lords – where all opposition parties and the crossbenchers have expressed reservations about the Bill to implement his treaty. Worst of all, Starmer has sidelined the Chagossians themselves, many of whom want to remain British and who are fighting heroically to stop this deal. Now the world has heard from the one person the Prime Minister cannot ignore. I am tempted to say it may be a case of better late than never: but, joking aside, Donald Trump has completely kiboshed Starmer’s sell-out deal, which he called an “act of great stupidity”. Like a B2 emerging from the heat haze above the runway at Diego Garcia, the US president imploded Starmer’s plan in one brutal sortie, whatever No 10 might say. Firstly, Trump’s statements on Chagos are an effective veto because even though the UK and Mauritius have signed a bilateral treaty, it has not yet been ratified. Even if the relevant legislation passes in Parliament (and it likely will, with Labour’s majority), the US was not a party to that treaty. The military base on Diego Garcia, one of the islands within the Chagos archipelago at the heart of this debate, is a joint US-UK military facility. It is infeasible that the UK will now implement the treaty without the approval of the US – that bilateral deal between the UK and Mauritius has been negotiated without American engagement in any of the details. And it is not just me who says that. It has been stated by David Lammy, the former foreign secretary himself, who said in a memorable interview last year to add to his personal oeuvre: “If President Trump doesn’t like the deal, the deal will not go forward … they’ve got to be happy with the deal or there is no deal.” It was a statement as clear as the pristine waters of the Chagos maritime preservation area. That leads to my second reason: it is implausible that ministers will now push forward with implementing the deal, because the situation is taken so seriously in Washington DC that the Americans could withdraw elements of intelligence cooperation with the United Kingdom. I do not support any pause in the vital intelligence relationship – but I firmly believe this is a real possibility if Starmer continues on his course with Chagos. When it comes to the defence relationship, the US holds the “Trump cards” – the Prime Minister will put the deal on pause rather than lose access to vital US intelligence. Thirdly, there are many rational reasons to listen to Trump’s concerns. He is, after all, the Commander-in-Chief of our closest military ally. The US president said: “There is no doubt China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness.” This is directly at odds with Starmer’s absurd claim that those countries in fact opposed his deal – as I have pointed out all along, hostile states were thrilled with Labour’s actions. Ministers feebly point to a non-binding press release in the name of secretary of state Marco Rubio from last year on Chagos. Well, when I last checked, the president outranks the secretary of state – who I am sure in his heart never supported the Chagos deal anyway. Starmer is letting the special relationship bleed out on his watch. Repairing it does not mean conceding to every demand of our great ally as Labour’s ingenuous may say – but it does mean working together for the good of the free world. Even if the Chagos Bill passes, even if the treaty is nominally ratified, Starmer cannot implement the deal in the face of the president’s opposition. Instead, he should let the deal quietly die as one of the many hundreds of international agreements never seen through to fruition. That is the best way to kill this deal – I urge all of its opponents to get behind Trump.