Starmer has acted in haste

Daily Telegraph Newsletter 19/01/26 So much for “every minute we focus on anything other than cost of living is a wasted minute”. Once again, Sir Keir Starmer began the week intending to turn our attention to the economy; once again, the Orange One has torpedoed those plans.

Donald Trump’s latest threat – a blanket 10 per cent tariff on imports – is not just dominating headlines but would worsen living standards here in Britain. The US is our single largest export market at country level, and economists warn that tariffs on such a scale could tip us into recession. As opposed to the 1 per cent growth we've been enjoying over the past 10 to 15 years – itself largely the effect of higher immigration rather than productivity (the only sustainable basis for rising living standards). Britain has no buffer; external shocks land harder here than they would in a healthier or more productive economy – notwithstanding Rachel Reeves’s implausible insistence, citing the IMF's latest outlook, that the UK will “turn a corner this year”. Starmer was careful this morning not to endorse retaliatory tariffs, as the EU has done. He is right that it is in no one’s interest – a cursory glance at the Kindleberger Spiral, that famous graphic illustrating how world trade collapsed in the early-1930s, shows where that strategy takes you. Very little was said at the emergency press conference in terms of concrete policy, raising the question: Why did the Prime Minister bother to wheel out the lectern and summon the British media’s finest? Number 10 will argue the “optics” mattered – that voters needed to witness the PM standing up to Trump. Starmer also played down the likelihood the US president would resort to military adventurism. There may have been another audience, too: moderate Republicans and others he could quietly encourage to try to rein Trump in. Polling in recent days has shown little American support for territorial expansion – let alone by force. Support has fallen, not risen, since Trump first made overtures towards Greenland as president-elect. It appears to have worked with Iran, where he seems to have rowed back on earlier fighting talk – not necessarily good news for Iranians though. For now, Starmer has his party behind him. Some Leftist Labour MPs might prefer a more confrontational approach, but that would be best left to hyperventilating Liberal Democrats: the PM will want to maintain his self-styled position as a “bridge” between Washington and Europe. This latest escalation may remind voters of Starmer’s early success in cultivating a bafflingly chummy relationship with Trump. This relationship comes with costs, however, re-opening awkward conversations around the need to increase defence spending at a time when the Government still won’t disclose a date for it reaching 3 per cent of GDP. Labour cannot promise security abroad indefinitely whilst expanding welfare provision at home and running up ever-larger debt. Back in Westminster, the Government’s handling of the Hillsborough Law – which would compel public bodies and officials to assist investigations with full and truthful information, and was a Labour manifesto pledge – has hit another roadblock. An amendment was hastily pulled amid a fierce backlash, with senior figures in the party describing it as a “car crash”. None of this was unforeseeable: offered the sugar rush of virtue signalling, Starmer acted in haste. Now, he has no credible answer to the central dilemma: how do you reconcile the demands of angry campaigners with the imperatives of national security? Intelligence agencies cannot operate on the assumption that everything will eventually be disclosed. A more confident, nimble PM would pick a side. Attempting to placate both will be hugely politically damaging, and shows unserious leadership.