Defect to Reform or shadow chancellor: What next on Jenrick’s long march Rightwards?

Fellow Tories fear the ambitious Newark MP, once liberal on immigration and an ardent Remainer, is on a path that ends with Farage’s party Daily Telegraph 09/01/26 Laila Cunningham’s assertion that Robert Jenrick would not be welcome in Reform UK will have landed awkwardly with Nigel Farage, who has spent months attempting to keep the Newark MP within his orbit.

Reform’s newly unveiled London mayoral candidate said she would not want to see Jenrick defect because he “allowed migrant hotels to flourish” while serving as immigration minister under Rishi Sunak. It was a pointed intervention and one that cuts directly across Farage’s subtle courtship of the former Conservative leadership contender. Jenrick, who has hardened his rhetoric in recent years, is keen to remind anyone listening that he resigned from government over what he described as the failure to control Britain’s borders. That version of events sits uneasily with his past. Critics are quick to dredge up his insistence that “you win elections at the centre” and his signature on a letter warning that Brexit would lead Britain into “dystopia”. Even Anna Soubry, once his ally, famously described him as a “full-fat subscriber to David Cameron”. Jenrick insists he was only ever a 50/50 remainer. The story of Jenrick’s political journey is one that some Conservatives fear may yet end at Reform’s headquarters in Millbank Tower. Rumours persist that Farage is preparing, once again, to pull him from the hat like a political rabbit. Those concerns have intensified amid reports that Jenrick has been left deflated by the resurgence of Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. The brighter her star shines at the Despatch Box, the quieter the muttering about replacing her becomes. Pro-Jenrick WhatsApp groups, once lively with speculation, have fallen largely silent. Even if the forthcoming local elections prove to be the bloodbath many predict for the Conservatives, most MPs believe the blame will be laid at the door of every leader since Margaret Thatcher rather than the incumbent herself. Indeed, Badenoch is widely credited with having at least stemmed the bleeding. This week Labour slipped behind the Tories for the first time since the general election. YouGov puts Labour on 17 per cent, only two points ahead of the Greens and behind the Tories on 19 per cent. Reform UK leads on 26 per cent, though even Farage this week conceded that the party peaked over the summer and has since lost momentum. The Telegraph’s poll of polls shows Reform falling from an average of 31 per cent in September to 29 per cent now. Most Tory MPs are unconvinced that a leadership change would materially affect the outcome of the local elections on May 7. Many also expect Keir Starmer to face an even harsher reckoning. Badenoch’s political agility is fast improving. She was the first leader to call for the resignation of the West Midlands chief constable over the Maccabi fan ban, and was quick to back the Telegraph’s Save Our Pubs campaign, prompting yet another Government U-turn. This leaves Jenrick facing a dilemma. He clearly still harbours leadership ambitions, shared by his formidable wife, Michal Berkner, whose now-famous eye-roll when Badenoch beat him in 2024 spoke volumes. If he has little prospect of leading the Conservatives in the near future, why remain? His majority is just 3,572, and there is a real risk of losing his seat at the next general election. Yet the alternative is hardly straightforward. Does the privately educated Cambridge graduate truly have the stomach for Reform? Jenrick initially backed net zero, then had a change of heart. As recently as 2022 he rebuked Suella Braverman for describing illegal migration as an “invasion”, insisting: “It’s not a phrase that I’ve used.” Repositioning oneself as a hardline Tory is one thing; defecting to a movement once dismissed by Cameron as containing “fruitcakes, loonies or closet racists” is quite another. Although certainly not cut from the Caroline Noakes school of Lib Dem Toryism, grey hairs such as Iain Duncan Smith withheld support during his leadership bid precisely because he was once considered a “wet”. Moreover, his leadership ambitions would be far harder to realise at “one man band” Reform than within the Conservative Party. At 44, Jenrick still has time on his side and may be wiser to play a longer game. Badenoch’s allies accuse him of “operating in a silo”. There was irritation during the Christmas recess when he made an issue of the Egyptian activist and anti-Semite Alaa Abd El Fattah being welcomed back to Britain, as it exposed the Conservatives to criticism for having granted him citizenship in 2021. Jenrick, for his part, believes he was short-changed in the shadow cabinet. He wanted the shadow chancellorship but was instead given justice, a brief he has handled competently, aided by his legal background and social media nous. Reports suggest that any defection to Reform would come with demands: specifically, a guarantee of becoming chancellor under a Farage premiership. That seems improbable, with both Richard Tice and Zia Yusuf already vying for the role. Badenoch should act pre-emptively. A mini-reshuffle now – rather than after the local elections, when it would look knee-jerk – could elevate Jenrick. She has made no secret of the fact that the current shadow cabinet will not be the one to fight the next general election. Promoting him would neutralise the defection threat. If he accepts, the issue is settled, even though he will no doubt continue to hanker for her job. Such competition is no bad thing. They’d make a formidable double act. Incidentally, another contender to the throne, James Cleverly, is being lined up to be unveiled as the Tories’ candidate for Mayor of London – further strengthening the Tory top team. If Jenrick refuses the promotion, she gains clarity and he loses the ability to complain about being sidelined. Reform insiders talk of Jenrick as “the ultimate prize”, but the truth is more prosaic. The real prize would be Badenoch herself: one of the few fully throated Thatcherites left in the Conservative Party. Unlike Jenrick, she never leaned into the party’s more Leftward lurches, making her a far more credible coalition partner for Farage when the time inevitably comes for the Right to unite.