Your Party may be in demise, but the Muslim vote is not going away

Labour could face a second Brexit moment and lose another core feature of its electoral base Daily Telegraph 02/12/25 link Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party was meant to be a thorn in Labour’s Left side.

First announced by the former Labour leader and Zarah Sultana in July, its unashamedly pro-Palestinian platform was billed as a natural home for Muslim voters and young progressives. But after its inaugural conference, the party is collapsing. Corbyn and Sultana, his ambitious protegee, are locked in a legal battle over funding; two of its Muslim MPs have quit the party; and new polling shows enthusiasm has waned, with as few as one in eight Britons considering voting for it, according to YouGov. The fragility of Your Party is encapsulated by the fact that even the Muslim Vote fails to endorse it wholeheartedly. Labour MPs love to privately mock Your Party for two reasons. First, it is the perfect antidote to their own troubles after a difficult 18 months in government. More importantly, it lets them believe that disenfranchised Muslim voters have no other vehicle to go to, having no choice but to come back into the fold. However, not all Labour MPs are as naive. One says: “There has been a generational shift, it feels like Brexit where the [white] working class abandoned us. Young male Muslims have now left us.” Let’s take a step back. Like white working-class voters, Muslims have been a core feature of Labour’s electoral base for decades. All 20 constituencies with the largest Muslim populations have been solidly Labour for 60 years, with a few skirmishes along the way. The party reached its apex in 2019 under Mr Corbyn’s leadership, as it soaked up 80 per cent of Muslim voters, far higher than any other religion or ethnicity opting for one party. Muslim voters have periodically organised outside Labour’s umbrella. In the wake of the Iraq war, the Respect Party was formed in 2004. Its charismatic and controversial leader George Galloway won Bethnal Green and later defeated Labour in Bradford West (2012) and Rochdale (2024). In each case, Galloway channelled voters’ frustrations and ousted the incumbent Labour candidate. In addition, Lutfur Rahman, found guilty of electoral fraud, won the Tower Hamlets mayoral vote decisively in 2022. However, Galloway and Rahman are anomalies Labour has had to contend with. Recent developments suggest an enduring fracture between Labour and significant sections of the Muslim electorate. In Bradford, Labour figures are resigned to the fact that Gaza independents will sweep the board at the next set of local elections. They also point to Oldham, where they are poised to take power in six months’ time. Across the Lancashire border in Burnley, they are already in control, having won three wards earlier this year. At the local elections next year, wards most likely to go to the Gaza independents will probably share three reasons: a large Muslim population, a sizeable pro-Gaza vote at the 2024 general election and an existing presence on the council. High-risk wards in London include Tower Hamlets, Redbridge, Ilford South and Ilford North – the latter the constituency of Wes Streeting, who was hundreds of voters away from losing his seat. Outside of the capital the same logic persists. Birmingham Ladywood, Bradford’s inner wards and the core of Leicester South wards will be vulnerable to a Gaza independent surge. Where independents are less organised, they have the option of backing the Greens. The party’s charismatic leader Zack Polanski is hoovering up progressive voters, boasting a Muslim co-deputy leader and growing support within the community. Abubakr Nanabawa, a spokesman for the Muslim Vote campaign group, which urges voters to back candidates on religious lines, said: “Muslims alongside allies are organising across the country for next years’ local election where we could see independents and Greens win historic number of seats” He added: “These networks are motivated and want to see a politics that represents local concerns instead of the politics they feel let down by.” Labour will no doubt lose many voters to Reform UK and even the Tories in the capital, where its vote share looks destined to collapse. But a more perennial problem is what it does with Muslim voters, which has been its base for many decades. Labour’s second Brexit moment, this time with Muslim voters instead of a working class, looks to be just months away.