Tories on course for just 14 seats at election

Leaked polling shows ‘existential threat’ to party – and victory for Reform Daily Telegraph link The Tories would win just 14 seats if a general election were called now, according to polling circulating inside Conservative Party headquarters and leaked to The Telegraph.

The research suggests the Tories would be obliterated in what one insider described as an “existential threat” to the most successful party in British electoral history. The findings – which predict that Reform UK would win a 46-seat majority – will inevitably raise serious questions over Kemi Badenoch’s leadership of the party. One Tory HQ insider said the results showed the party was in danger of “being consigned to the history books”. While Mrs Badenoch is widely recognised to have improved her performance in recent weeks, her critics complain she was too passive in her first months in charge, allowing Nigel Farage and Reform “to fill the political vacuum”. The polling, carried out by Stack Data Strategy, predicts the Conservatives would hold on to just 14 seats on a 17 per cent share of the vote: three seats in the north of England and Scotland combined, one in the Midlands and a handful in the Home Counties, their traditional heartland. The party would also retain as few as four seats in London, and be wiped out everywhere else in England. The findings are being circulated within the Conservative Research Department inside Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), The Telegraph understands, and have caused alarm among insiders. The Tory source added: “This is absolutely an existential threat. It goes to show the level of work that needs doing, and I don’t think the leadership has always grasped how much they need to do to survive. This is a clear wake-up call.” The source also cast doubt on Mrs Badenoch’s ability to get the party through the crisis, saying: “I just don’t think Kemi knows what to do. I don’t think she’s a bad person. I just think the task is beyond her.” Another Tory insider said: “The direction of travel is just terrible. The party is heading for an extinction event. It is clearly not working for Kemi. “The harsh reality is that while Kemi’s performance has improved recently, it has had absolutely no effect on the polls. It’s the wrong strategy and it’s too late. The public has made up its mind about her.” According to the Stack analysis, Reform UK would win 348 seats on 30 per cent of the vote. ‘Every day like Christmas for Reform’ Mr Farage has taken to privately calling Mrs Badenoch “Santa Claus” behind her back, telling Reform staffers that, with her leading the Tories, “every day is like Christmas” for his party. It is understood that a constituency-by-constituency analysis would show Mrs Badenoch and Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, as the only members of the current front bench surviving if a general election were called today. The relatively even spread of Tory voters across the UK’s 650 constituencies means the party would secure far fewer seats than its share of polling – 17 per cent – would otherwise indicate. With an election clearly not imminent, Mrs Badenoch will try to find ways to revive Tory fortunes. Last year, Rishi Sunak led the Conservatives to their worst performance in a general election, winning 121 seats last year on a 23.7 per cent share of the vote. But with Sir Keir Starmer widely seen as faltering badly in No 10, the Tory faithful are alarmed that the party has failed to take advantage and instead has seen its share of the vote fall dramatically under Mrs Badenoch’s year-long stewardship. Stack’s research estimates that Labour’s share of the vote is at 24 per cent, giving the party 161 seats, down from 411 at the election last summer. Sir Keir is also facing the threat of a leadership challenge, and next week’s Budget, at which more tax rises are expected, is unlikely to bring any solace. Under the Stack analysis, the Liberal Democrats would secure a 13 per cent share of the vote. However, that would give them 63 seats because of a concentration of Lib Dem voters in key regions, including the South-West. The polling shows the Tories being squeezed by Reform and the Lib Dems and wiped off the electoral map in traditional heartlands. In Surrey, for example, the Lib Dems are being seen as an alternative by affluent voters, while in more impoverished constituencies nearby, in parts of Kent and Essex, Reform has become the party of choice. The Telegraph understands that Stack’s voting analysis is based on a statistical modelling technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP), which uses a very large poll and other sources of information to draw wider conclusions about voting in every constituency. Its findings are worse for the Conservatives than other similar MRP polls but largely in keeping with a general decline in Tory fortunes. A YouGov MRP model in September gave the Tories 45 seats and put Reform just short of a majority, while an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, published in October, gave the Tories a 15 per cent share of the vote and just 24 seats. Stack Data Strategy is a sister company to Hanbury Strategy, a lobbying and public relations firm with links to the Conservative Party. Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch. It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data. A spokesman for Stack said: “Our expert team regularly run major polls and models so that we have the latest data on UK and US politics. This analysis, which is from the summer, was paid for by Stack Data and was not commissioned or funded by any other entity or political party.” Allies of Mrs Badenoch said: “The Conservative Party hasn’t commissioned any such polling from Stack. But the quickest way to show that we haven’t listened and we haven’t learnt from our biggest-ever defeat last year is to dissolve into more fights about leadership. “From her forcing out Mandelson and Rayner, to her conference speech resetting the party on stronger economy and stronger borders, Kemi has shown she has the backbone, team and plan to take the Conservative Party back to Downing Street. “And anyone who is trying to say otherwise just wants our party to fail.”