Starmer's last stand

 

Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour should be at the height of its powers. Instead, it faces extinction. Sir Keir does not understand who he is trying to appeal to, and is producing mixed messages that fail to satisfy unhappy voters. Even if a strong performance at the upcoming Labour conference buys him a little time, he is beyond saving.   Allister Heath, Sunday Telegraph Editor

Labour is staring political oblivion in the face   If word salads and muddled thinking could win elections, Sir Keir Starmer would be in with a chance. In the nasty, brutish and short world of British politics, however, his singular inability to communicate and shocking failure to deliver are proving predictably catastrophic. The PM’s polling is calamitous, with even YouGov’s MRP suggesting a Reform-Tory coalition after the election. Humiliation and even extinction loom for a Labour Party that ought to be at the height of its powers. Starmer’s latest relaunch, intended to allow him to survive his party conference in Liverpool, will satisfy few voters, and will be understood by an even smaller number. His vibes are all over the place. He doesn't understand those he wants to appeal to, and keeps sending mixed messages. The PM is trying to sound a little bit more “Right-wing” (in as much as he understands what this means) with his plan for compulsory digital IDs, tougher language on immigration, endorsement of patriotism and criticism of out of control benefits. He is even attacking Andy Burnham, now the greatest threat to his position, for being too profligate and fiscally irresponsible, which is a little bit thick given that Starmer himself is presiding over a catastrophic expansion of the budget deficit.    One central problem is that Starmer doesn’t understand those he seeks to appeal to. While many voters tell pollsters they back ID cards, its opponents are extremely motivated and angry at what they see (in my view rightly) as an authoritarian overreach. Support for the scheme will collapse when it becomes clear that it would only come into force in 2029, most likely after Labour isn’t even in office anymore, making a mockery of the Government’s claim that it is urgently needed to address the illegal immigration crisis. Starmer’s statist, Left-wing DNA shines through at all times, even when he seeks to appeal to the Right. He may claim to be reclaiming patriotism from Reform, and yet he can’t prevent himself from lambasting what he describes as “a politics of predatory grievance, preying on the problems of working people.” To the left-wing ear, this is a clear dog-whistle, suggesting that the Right’s worries about cultural decay, crime and immigration are a sham, a problem invented by Right-wingers. The Prime Minister not very good at pretending to be a small-c conservative. It makes his arguments hard to follow. Much of his latest speech is almost incomprehensible, a string of verbiage and dross. What does “difference under the same flag” actually mean? Allow me to share a few other choice quotes: “This is the defining political choice of our times: Using that infrastructure of division… against the politics of patriotic renewal.” Here is another: “Rooted in communities, building a better country. Brick by brick, from the bottom-up – including everyone in the national story.” Clear? I didn’t think so. You may love or hate Nigel Farage, but he exudes the clarity and simplicity that eludes Starmer. The PM’s confusion extends to welfare. The Government appears intent on relaxing the two-child benefit cap, a Leftist policy. How does that tally with the Rightist crackdown on welfare supposedly being planned by Darren Jones? Does Starmer want more welfare, or less? How is the tough messaging reconcilable with a Labour backbench that already rejected such a plan once, and that is increasingly in open revolt, enthralled by Burnham’s siren songs? It's not just the comms that are muddled.    Keir Starmer at a Chequers press conference, Sep 18   Labour may have been wrong on immigration, Starmer admitted in an op-ed for The Telegraph, but such mea culpas are never enough. They need to be matched with strong actions to demonstrate a genuine change in attitudes, and here, as far as the public is concerned, we only have the laughable one in, one out policy. Starmer has been all over the place on immigration rhetorically: he started off to the Left of the Tories, scrapping Rwanda, and then shifted briefly Rightwards with his “Island of Strangers” speech, before recanting, and has now about-turned again, claiming once again to be tougher on the matter. None of this is convincing. Voters will be baffled at best and repelled at worst. Nobody likes to be taken for fools. Facts matter, and the vast majority of the public believe – rightly – that the UK is facing far too much legal and illegal immigration. The best-case scenario for Starmer this week is that he is somehow able to regain the initiative during the Labour conference, to outshine Burnham, to keep control of the narrative and to deliver a decent speech. This would allow him to be hailed by commentators as having performed surprisingly well, and buy him a little time. But even a superlative conference won’t save him. The scandals will continue to come thick and fast. His Number Ten operation will remain in turmoil. The polls won’t move much. The economy will continue to flatline. The Budget will be a disaster and the May 2026 elections a catastrophe. The best case scenario for Starmer is a temporary blip, followed by an even greater collapse. The real question Labour attendees in Liverpool should ask themselves is this: Could this be Starmer’s last conference as PM? A year ago, Labour activists were in celebratory mood after their party’s stunning success; this week they will be staring political oblivion in the face.