The Runcorn and Helsby by-election is just two days away. Will one of Labour’s safest seats close the door on the governing party?
Daily Telegraph
Runcorn fight will go down to the wire
“I can’t stand the man, I wouldn’t vote for the man, I’m going Green. Bye-bye!”
This was what Karen Shore, the Labour candidate in Runcorn, and Cabinet minister Hillary Benn were told moments before a door was slammed shut in their faces on the campaign trail yesterday.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party faces a far more significant threat from Reform UK than the Greens in less than 48 hours’ time but the traditionally Labour town turning against the Prime Minister on the Left as well as to the Right is a bad omen.
By-elections are notoriously difficult to poll but all the surveys suggest the race between Labour and Reform will go down to the wire.
Not that you would guess there was much urgency, with the Prime Minister missing from the campaign trail. My colleague Ben Butcher has taken a closer look at his absence today.
Sir Keir is deeply unpopular among the wider electorate and despite having said he is willing to be disliked, his decisions on National Insurance and winter fuel payments could well cost him the first by-election of the current parliament.
Senior figures in and around Reform have pivoted to expectation management in recent days, pointing out that Runcorn and Helsby is the 16th-safest Labour seat.
But with low turnout normal, governments can be expected to lose by-elections, and defeat for Ms Shore on Thursday would say just as much about public perception of Labour during its first 10 months in charge as it would the rise and rise of Reform in the polls.
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