How Nigel Farage and his party could win the next general election

 Matt Goodwin

Jan 31

Nigel Farage and the Reform Party could win the next general election. Yes, I genuinely believe that. Why? Because of what I’m about to show you.

By the end of this post, I will have convinced you there is a plausible, credible and identifiable Roadmap to Power for Nigel Farage and his self-anointed People’s Army.

Before setting it out, let’s begin with the wider context of what’s unfolding in British politics, or what I call ‘the three Ps’ —the polls, political volatility, and the public.

First, in the latest polls, Reform is now averaging close to 25%, up more than 10-points on what it polled only six months ago at the 2024 general election.

In the ‘poll of polls’, an average of all polls, Reform is now second, ahead of the Tories and within the margin of error of replacing Labour.

While this would already put Reform on around 90-100 seats at the next election, if Reform —which is now taking just as many disillusioned voters from Labour and the Liberal Democrats as it’s taking from the Tories—things are changing rapidly.

In one poll, yesterday, Reform is now 4-points clear of the two big parties.

The key number here is 31%.

If Farage and Reform can get to 31% in the polls while Kemi Badenoch and the Tories continue to underperform their 2024 result (which they are doing) while Keir Starmer and his already very unpopular Labour government crash by around 10 points (which is not hard to imagine with an economic recession, rising immigration and Keir Starmer’s remarkable unpopularity), then the idea of a Reform-led government leaves the realm of fantasy and enters reality.

Which brings me to the second point —political volatility.

I’ve made this point before and it’s crucial.

Many people in the Uniparty assume their voters will ‘come home’ at the next general election like they have in the past. But this is wrong. It completely ignores how one of ‘the fundamentals’ in British politics is on the move.

We are no longer living in the 1980s, the 1990s, or the 2000s, when people’s tribal allegiances to the old parties were still strong and predictable. Instead, politics has become much, much more volatile —fluid, chaotic, unpredictable, and driven more by how people feel about specific issues than tribal loyalty to one of the big two parties.

In fact, British politics has never been as volatile as it is today, which is one big reason why we just went from a massive Tory majority in 2019 to a massive Labour majority in 2024. Just look at the share of voters who have switched their political loyalty from one party to another between 1960 and 2024 (from the British Election Study):

This is a huge advantage for an anti-establishment disrupter like Reform.

It shows why this revolt, so long as it positions itself as a ‘none of the above’ alternative for people from across the landscape (not just ex-Tories), has a much bigger opportunity than the Social Democratic Party in the 1980s or UKIP in the 2010s.

Third, Reform needs to exploit this volatility while speaking to the British public about a specific and targeted set of issues which really matter to voters.

Nigel Farage, as I’ve outlined before, has never had as much space as he has today.

The issue agenda is basically perfect for a party like Reform.

A cost-of-living crisis that will get worse before it gets better. Mass, uncontrolled and ongoing immigration. Broken borders. The small boats, a powerful symbol of the inability of the state to solve problems. And, alongside all that, spiralling crime.

These issues have all created ample space for Reform to get to 31% —and they are all interlinked. Immigration is not just about immigration; it’s about an extreme policy of low-wage, low-skill immigration that’s making us poorer, less prosperous, increasing crime, piling pressure on the National Health Service (NHS), and making the housing crisis worse. This is no doubt why the British people are turning against immigration.

Our broken borders and the small boats crisis is not just a fringe issue; by the time of the next general election it will have cost hardworking British taxpayers somewhere in the region of £60 BILLION —money which should be immediately redirected into fixing the NHS and the social care system.

And linked to these are things like the foreign aid budget —like the fact that Britain is sending more than £15 billion overseas every year while having to treat its own people in hospital corridors, car parks, and forcing them to say goodbye to their loved ones in crowded rooms with no privacy.

This helps to explain why calls to slash foreign aid and redirect it into things like fixing the NHS, social care, and tackling the cost-of-living crisis here in Britain is supported by around three-quarters of Brits.

Running through all these issues is the core theme of ‘security’ —economic security from a spiralling cost-of-living crisis, national security from the small boats and broken borders, physical security from a collapsing NHS and spiralling crime, and cultural security from political correctness and threats to free speech.

Fix Britain before helping the world. Regain control of immigration and our borders. Deport foreign criminals. And redirect any savings into helping British families and workers are all supported by large majorities of people.

All of which raises an obvious question.

If there is ample space for Reform then how can the party fill this space with a credible, coherent, and competent strategy for the 2029 election?

Which areas of the country should Reform be targeting and investing in now? How can it really overcome the notoriously difficult two-party system?

Should Reform be targeting Labour or the Tories, or both? In other words, what does Reform’s Roadmap to Power look like?

I ask all these questions because —exclusively for our most committed supporters—I’m about to answer them.

Below, I present the most detailed, the most comprehensive information that has ever been assembled on Reform’s support.

I’ve analysed every seat in the country.

I’ve crunched the very latest data from the census and the last general election.

And I’ve mapped the specific areas, the specific seats, that will provide Reform with a clear, concise, and credible Roadmap to Power.

So, here, exclusively for those of you who make our work possible, is Reform’s Roadmap to Power in full —one that shows how this growing revolt could end up realigning Britain’s entire political system …