Scrapping the Rwanda plan was just the beginning. Yvette Cooper can’t possibly bring the amount of immigration in line with public opinion
Source - Daily Telegraph 22/08/24
If the weather this week is good, the number of illegal immigrants arriving across the Channel on small boats could reach 20,000. After the riots earlier this month, immigration has soared back to being the most important issue in the country, according to pollsters. Meanwhile, the government hasn’t yet recruited a Border Security Commander, after being turned down by their preferred candidate.
In this tough climate, a series of measures have been announced by the home secretary to crack down on illegal immigration. At the centre of those plans is an ambition to achieve the highest rate of returns of illegal immigrants in any six-month period since 2018. That has already been attacked, with critics pointing out that the 2018 number was already exceeded in 2023. Nonetheless, the intention is there.
Other elements of the plan include recruiting 100 officers to the National Crime Agency who will target smuggling gangs, another 290 beds added to two detention centres, and more sanctions on those who employ illegal immigrants.
The NCA already has around 70 investigations targeting the people smuggling gangs and, with international partners, has seized around 400 boats and engines intended for use as small boats.
There is a problem of scale here, however. The number of those crossing on small boats has decreased since 2023, largely as a result of a returns deal with Albania. But that means that those who are still crossing disproportionately come from countries which are unsafe for us to return to. Recent statistics show that the most common nationality, making up 18 per cent of the total, are Afghans. It is very unlikely they will be returned.
The Rwanda scheme was intended to deal with those difficult cases. The Conservatives had a choice between that and tackling human rights law. They chose the former. By cancelling the Rwanda scheme, Labour has no deterrent against illegal immigrants from those unsafe countries and it seems unlikely they will tackle human rights law. That means the only way to stop the boats is to prevent them launching from France but the smugglers always find ways to circumvent the French police, such as sailing down canals rather than launching from the beaches.
Unless French police lock down every waterway in Northern France, which seems unlikely when French boat-owners are already complaining about restrictions, there is no way to stop them all. Meanwhile, seizing boats has led smugglers to overload their remaining boats, with up to three times as many illegal immigrants shoved onto boats than normal. That has been blamed for an increase in deaths, both from drowning and being crushed.
What’s more, even if returns are increased to 2018 levels, the number of illegal immigrants has soared since then. The record number of enforced removals was achieved under Tony Blair but even that number wouldn’t be sufficient to remove all those whose asylum claims were refused or withdrawn this year, let alone all those from prior years who should have been removed but weren’t.
Those include the likes of Brwa Shorsh, a Kurdish immigrant who racked up 12 convictions since arriving in 2019 but was somehow still free to try and murder a Polish postman on the Tube after appealing his deportation.
In this febrile environment, the government will quickly find how few options it has. The new immigration statistics reveal that immigration is down compared to last year but substantially higher than it was before 2019. Many of those who came as workers will get indefinite leave to remain in a few years, allowing them access to social housing and benefits. Although that is due to the previous Conservative government, Labour have failed to curb immigration and will find voters now blame them.
Reports that there are discussions about a youth mobility scheme with the EU suggest that they fail to get that. The EU has already signalled that it must be the same for all members, which means every Bulgarian under 30 would be eligible to come. It would also mean our borders are only as secure as that of the weakest EU nation: a factor in the Leicester riots were newly arrived Indians who had obtained Portuguese citizenship and used it to settle in Britain.
None of these newly announced restrictions are necessarily bad but they fail to tackle the extent of the problem. Labour will have to be much more radical if they want to seriously control immigration or to stop the small boats.
Comments
Post a Comment