Are voters deserting Labour? Labour lead drops to lowest level since last June in new poll

Hint that £28 billion U-turn is cutting through to voters as Sir Keir Starmer’s party’s lead falls by seven points

Source - Daily Telegraph - 14/02/24

Labour’s lead over the Tories has fallen to its lowest level since last June as Sir Keir Starmer faces one of the most difficult periods of his leadership.

The Savanta survey, conducted in the days after Sir Keir Starmer radically downgraded his flagship green spending pledge, put Labour on 41 per cent of the vote, down five points on two weeks before.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives made a small gain of two points, placing the party on 29 per cent.

It is Labour’s narrowest lead in any Savanta poll since June 2023, while its vote share is at its lowest since September 2022.

The findings suggest Sir Keir’s dramatic change of heart on the £28 billion commitment, ridiculed by the Tories, may have cut through to the general public, spooking his supporters.

Pollster Chris Hopkins said it shows Labour’s lead is not “infallible”, but warned against reading “too much into one poll – yet”.

It comes as Sir Keir finds himself in damage control mode for a second week running, having been forced into yet another U-turn in a deepening anti-Semitism crisis.

On Tuesday, he suspended Graham Jones, who was due to stand for Labour in Hyndburn, after it emerged that he referred to “f---ing Israel” at a public meeting and said that British volunteers in the Israel Defense Forces should be “locked up”.

Sir Keir was pushed into the decision less than a day after he retracted his support for Azhar Ali, Labour’s candidate in this month’s Rochdale by-election, whose own “abhorrent” claims about Israel sparked the latest row.

The first key test of the fallout from both controversies will come on Thursday, when voters in Kingswood and Wellingborough go to the polls in a double by-election that had been expected to deliver a blow to Rishi Sunak.

The Savanta poll of roughly 2,000 UK adults was carried out from 9 to 11 February, and contrasted with results from its last survey on 26 to 28 January. If the results were replicated at a general election, according to seat-modelling site Electoral Calculus, Labour would be on course for a majority of 92.

Mr Hopkins, the firm’s political research director, said: “This significant drop in Labour’s lead may well be in response to a torrid couple of weeks for Keir Starmer’s party, and part of a wider trend. It may also be something else entirely, and I’d caution people not to read too much into one poll – yet.

“But this poll still serves as useful a reminder as any that Labour’s lead – while consistently high for many months – is not infallible. Voters have not quite made up their mind about Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, and doubts could well be creeping back in.

“One thing is for certain, if this drop in the polls is a consequence of their recent troubles, it does not bode well for a short campaign. A Conservative machine in full swing and the inevitable increased scrutiny from the media may well be very uncomfortable for the Labour Party.”