Starmer has dealt the far-Left a blow, but hasn't defeated it entirely. The Gaza war could reopen old wounds
Source - Daily Telegraph - 19/10/23
Two weeks ago, Labour – and Sir Keir Starmer – appeared to be cruising to inevitable success. Rishi Sunak’s conference speech had failed to rally the Tory troops while Starmer’s support was booming, his campaign to detoxify the party of its recent Corbynite past having made it electable once more.
Since then, a great fat stake has been driven into heart of the party, reminding everyone of the Left-wing orthodoxies which continue to bubble just below the surface. The resignation of councillors aggrieved at Starmer’s support for Israel may still be a trickle, but it is gathering pace and is occurring across the country. One wonders how many MPs are biting their lips, weighing up what they value most: their principles or the chance to hold office?
It is hard to under-estimate just how divisive Israel and Palestine are within the Labour party – and just how many members are prepared to stand up for a terrorist group when it suits their politics. This was a party, after all, which enthusiastically elected Jeremy Corbyn as leader despite his being on record referring to “friends in Hamas” and “friends in Hezbollah”. The anti-Semitic hate levelled at former Labour MP Luciana Berger disgraced the party.
It is foolish to think all this has gone away just because Starmer has brought the party back from its nadir. The hate remains, waiting to be awoken. It is, of course, perfectly legitimate to support the cause of a Palestinian state while condemning the violence of Hamas and other groups. But there are clearly many in the Labour party who can’t manage the latter. A fringe event alongside the Labour party conference saw a speaker cheered for declaring, a day after Hamas’ terror attacks, “Yesterday over 230 of our siblings... ascended to martyrdom at the hands of the Zionist entity”.
It is not hard to see how this division could split the Labour party in two. Jeremy Corbyn, who has already hinted he could run against Sadiq Khan for London mayor, could decide that the mayoralty is not a big enough stage on which to protest his exile from the Labour party. In one final fling into national politics he could seize the opportunity presented by the situation in the Middle East and sets up a rival party to advance the same policies he did as leader – and which were enormously popular among many Labour voters.
In recent elections, it has been mostly the Conservatives who have had to cope with factions breaking off on the fringes of the party. Ukip, the Brexit Party, Reform UK – all have drawn off significant numbers of voters. No-one really knows how an independent Corbyn party would perform – although George Galloway’s success in defeating his former party on a couple of occasions when he stood in seats with high Muslim populations ought to serve as a warning. Corbyn has far wider appeal than Galloway ever did.
It wouldn’t take a vast transfer of votes to deny Labour victory. The party is not polling as highly as it did under Tony Blair in the mid 1990s, with support in the low to mid 40s. Take away 6 per cent (which is what Reform UK are currently polling) and Labour would be down to the high 30s – not enough, traditionally, to be sure of a majority. For all that Starmer may think he has killed Labour’s far Left snake, he hasn’t even scotch’d it.
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