Macron facing political ‘tsunami’ as voters turn to Marine Le Pen

 Poll suggests a steady growth in support for hard-Right leader, with president’s own MP warning constituencies are falling ‘like dominoes’

Source - Daily Telegraph - 18/06/23

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Emmanuel Macron is facing a “tsunami” of hard-Right populism, an ally in his party has warned, as polls revealed a surge in support for Marine Le Pen.

According to a new survey conducted by Ifop-Fiducial for the Journal du Dimanche (JDD) and Sud Radio, 41 per cent of respondents said they want to see Ms Le Pen win the next election in 2027, a rise of seven percentage points from 2021.

Likewise, a similar number of respondents, 42 per cent, said they’ve voted for a candidate from the National Rally (RN) in the past, a figure that also marks a rise of seven percentage points compared to 2021.

The poll surveyed 3,000 respondents and was conducted from June 12 to 15.

“I have the impression of a tsunami advancing,” Jacqueline Macquet, an MP in Mr Macron’s Renaissance party, told the JDD.

Mr Macron’s unpopular pension reform scheme, which raised the age of retirement from 62 to 64, mobilised millions of people to the streets in months-long protests that brought cities across France to a standstill earlier this year. Since the start of his presidency, he has likewise been unable to shake the label of being the “president of the rich”.

For nearly 30 years, Ms Macquet, MP for Pas-de-Calais in the north of France, says the far-Right party has made continued gains in her department.

But the tide turned dramatically with the arrival of Mr Macron, Ms Maquet said. Over the last few years, half of the 12 constituencies in her department have fallen to the National Rally “like dominoes.”

“As soon as Macron arrived in 2017, I cried wolf and I was not heard much,” she said.

Polling found that National Rally supporters look increasingly like the average French voter, notes the JDD, with support growing in sectors where RN was historically weak.

They include categories like retirees, senior executives, university graduates and high-income earners, all of whom now make up around 30 per cent of the party’s voter base.

An earlier survey from April showed that Ms Le Pen would beat the incumbent president with 55 to 45 per cent of the vote, were an election held then.

Findings also suggest that the French public is softening to Ms Le Pen’s ongoing campaign strategy aimed at de-vilifying her extreme-Right image: in categories of honesty, sincerity and relatability, she has gained seven to eight percentage points compared to 2021.

The hard-Right has also poached supporters from its opposition: 27 per cent of far-Left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters swung to the other side.

Overall, 77 per cent of French respondents and 92 per cent of RN voters said that France is on the decline, up two and one percentage points respectively.