Labour is starting to panic. We should too

 All signs show Starmer expected to lose in 2024. Victory is coming as an unwelcome surprise – the party simply isn't ready to govern

Source - Daily Telegraph 19/05/23

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One has to feel for Sir Keir Starmer. There he was, slowly laying the groundwork for a nine-year campaign to get back into Downing Street after the 2019 rout – and then the cunning Tories outflanked him by imploding before their first healthy majority since 1987 had even run its course.

If you had conducted a survey in Westminster the morning after the last election, you could probably have counted the people who seriously thought Labour could be back in Downing Street in 2024 on the fingers of your third hand. And yet, here we are.

On the television, talking heads sagely report that of course Labour is keeping its powder dry and keeping back the detailed announcements until closer to the election; precisely the sort of thing you’d also say if you were guarding the door of an empty powder store and hoping nobody notices.

Perhaps there really is a detailed manifesto somewhere behind the curtain. But if there isn’t it would explain why, for example, earlier this year Starmer gave a big speech about how his government would be defined by five national missions – and then made us wait a few weeks, breath baited, to find out what those missions would be.

Or his announcement that Labour are going to have to do “Clause IV on steroids”. Sounds big, but we’re none the wiser about what the Clause IV moment is going to be.

Unless, of course, we’re misreading that statement. Because the thing about Tony Blair’s decision to scrap Labour’s hallowed commitment to public ownership of the means of production is that it represented a fundamental break with what came before.

Policy in the Starmer era, on the other hand, seems to be mostly stronger doses of the same medicine. You loved the Equality Act, so here’s the Race Equality Act. Devolution to Scotland and Wales was a roaring success, so here’s Gordon Brown rewriting the entire constitution. The smoking ban did wonders for Britain’s pubs, so why not ban cigarettes altogether – and perhaps vapes too?

Lots of Labour politicians dislike the Government’s new public order legislation. But will they repeal it? Can’t say. Stimulating growth and job creation will be vital – but isn’t hiking capital gains tax the sort of thing a Labour government is for? 

Perhaps there is some massive policy shift coming which will stamp Starmer’s vision indelibly on his party. But if not, the lawyer in him will at least be able to point out that there are two ways to interpret “Clause IV on steroids”.

Again, this fits my taken-by-surprise thesis. Inertia is one of the most powerful forces in politics; if you don’t have a clear agenda and need to lay your hands on one in a hurry, you will pick up whatever is to hand. Mad stuff such as breaking the link between citizenship and the franchise is precisely the sort of thing that will get aired at blue-sky sessions (and then, alas, leaked).

Likewise, giving Brown the chance to do a Beveridge and produce a chunky report of unworkable proposals must have seemed like a safe bet if Starmer expected to lose in 2024. 

If we are going to have a Labour government, then every Conservative should want a good one; we will, after all, have to live under it like everyone else. 

But so far, it doesn’t look like the Opposition is in the right place for a genuine Clause IV moment, roided up or otherwise. Starmer talks a good game, but behind him too many of yesterday’s people are gearing up to relitigate yesterday’s battles. 

Ah well. What’s one more lost decade?