Guys,
The following has been written by Richard. It's a long piece and I did consider splitting it but I thought by doing this it would lose some context. But well worthy of spending a bit longer than usual to read. Thanks Richard
Source - Richard Jones - 13/03/2022
We have previously talked about EU’s imperial drive and how EU must make a huge lurch soon or be potentially reduced, diminished, ignored from within and without and rendered globally irrelevant. This conversation, apart from within the corridors of power in Brussels/Luxembourg/Frankfurt, has been rather set aside by the Covid, Ukraine, energy provision, net zero admixture.
The EU drivers, individual and national, are now concluding that the period of mid-2023, through the EU MEP and other elections in the May 2024 to October 2024 timeframe and assurance of supply by January 2025 is a key period in which to gird their loins for a lurch.
From feedback, EU individual drivers see an EU in multi-prong deep rifts. Some members are in more than one trench of discontent, and yes I do simplify.
1) SOVEREIGN CURRENCY.
There are now 7 out of 27, as Croatia gave in, sovereign currency members – Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Sweden. These nations are Forex abused – usually in the 10% bandwidth when they receive diminishing EU subsidies and when they are treaty obliged to contribute to EU.
2) ‘EU TREATY VALUES’ v. NATIONAL DEMOCRACY LAWS.
EU treaty law originates from an EUParl resolution in 2019 that all the existing treaties – Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam, Lisbon should be reframed into 2 - Treaty of the European Union (the values) and Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union (how those values are enforced, enacted and imposed). Neither new treaty has ever been put to a national vote. This is a perpetual long battle with Poland and Hungary with more frequent support from Czechia, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. Now and then the rest of the ex-Soviet satellites. Recently, since Covid, Italy, Austria and Spain voicing doubts.
3) REGIONALISATION AND DECENTRALISATION.
More decentralized bottom up driven regions and groups slowly emerge. A widening, deepening feeling that EU is too totalitarian and centralized. EU had killed the oldest of this genus, Benelux, by the 1980’s. But there are reappearances, including non-EU nations, across Europe.
The Nordic nations provide example: Denmark, Faroes, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and this group seems to be attracting interest from Estonia and Latvia. There is the almost vintage Visegrad group of Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia who in turn seem to attract interest from Bulgaria, Croatia, Lithuania, Romania and Serbia and Montenegro, the last two are EU candidates
4) GLOBAL INFLUENCE AND DEFENCE.
EU’s military contortions are clearly massively short and unfit for purpose. NATO’s role, scope and make-up renders any EU strategic policy counter difficult. EU is also cheating on Ukraine support.
5) MIGRATION AND BORDERS
EU’s ‘firstfootfall’ asylum FRONTEX enforced impositions upset Cyprus, Italy, Greece (less now we have our own laws), Malta, Spain
EU’s failure to defend ‘external borders and still support the untenable Schengen’ causes friction with all the above and Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia
6) ODD BUT DEEP ‘ONE ON ONES’.
a) EU versus Germany on no more petrol cars after 2035.
b) EU versus Ireland on corp. tax – an Irish win as they have a one year delay on their forced increase from 12.5% to 25%. EU granted this favour because Eire is key to the Brexit punishment strategy whose end point is weakening all aspects of all of the UK union.
c) EU versus Holland and soon Belgium on EU net zero commitments versus farm closures.
Thus an EU in some sort and level of disaffection with all almost all its members; losing its global status and coherent global expression, Brexit accounts for some of this in G7, WTO and other realms; an EU obsessed with continued Brexit punishment despite massive self-laceration; an EU inferring growing hegemony through attacks on the UK union and failingly in West Balkans and disobligingly taking on Ukraine.
All these are explosive and the fuse on some is only months long.
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Let’s take a look at that unholy trinity. The mezzanine EU and the ground floor dual monarchy of France (the socio-cultural-political throne) and Germany (the economic and commercial throne).
Germany, especially the vital Mittelstand, is not doing well, is in de facto recession with resurface not evident, and is no longer the potential mutual debt harbinger of EU and as of the energy crisis and Ukraine war, Germany would likely look to retreat from EU if EU in any way insisted Germany fill that ‘bailout’ role. Germany is also not enjoying a period of political stability. There is a massive difference between a CDU dominated two party coalition with large majority and a pallid SPD led three way coalition of reasonable but still ‘bring downable’ majority. However, Germany has certainly further diminished a really ill-begotten France.
France is currently in political disjuncture with a president who has to bully his very necessary laws through by edict and senatorial connivance. France’s use to EU and their power base is the ECB and similar institutions on the global stage, such as IMF, WTO, WHO and as the guardian of the single market. This slimy underground circular tunnel tensures a series of innovative impeded, competitivity handicapped economies circling in the most persistent and self-denigrating protectionism imaginable. France no longer runs the tunnel. In many ways Holland in the food sector, Spain in the ex-EU trade area, Italy in the household capital goods sector and Greece in the tourist area have largely supplanted France and their dark, inward-looking, rash of regulation aura. But France has kept an institutional fat and podgy toehold.
So what will a less and less bright and empowered EU do to ensure future imperial power as more and more things fade and fall away within and without and decay and irrelevancy beckon.
1) EURO –DE FACTO RESERVE CURRENCY – MORE CENTRALISED CONTROL
This is already underway with two initial victories. The first victory to EU is brow-beating, by fining for a border fence with Bosnia then allowing but not subsidizing the new, into the euro. The second victory is making use of the Biden-bungle weakening $ which looks like continuing and perhaps deepening through lack of bank confidence and equity market jitters. The NIP paradigm and migration levers had scurried the pound away and the Swiss franc is just too few. The western two large scale currencies are the $ and the euro.
Now EU/ECB moves in this direction are supported by various nations, replacing the $, an alternative to the $ or competition to bring down the $, being the diverse levers. There are nations whose economies are already discomfited by the weak and likely weakening $. We are talking Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Saudi and neighbours, the ‘Stans’ and even Russia who, perhaps silently, support these moves.
When Attali, Mitterand and Delors launched the euro there was a twofold back-story. Story 1 was to make the euro so ubiquitous in Europe that it was too big to be allowed to go bust. Story 2 was the very size of the euro catchment would force some special global rules and conditions.
French led ECB with Lagarde halfway through her non-renewal 8 year term (see later) is also taking other ‘reservist’ moves
A) Outrageous bullying, Forex abuse already mentioned, including threat, renewed allegations, tougher scrutiny of sovereign currency nations of TEU Article 7 (no vote), ECJ etc. Bulgaria is under the cosh right now. The ECB objective is all sovereign currency riddance by July 2024.
Within the same fretwork are moves to fabricate the use of the euro in the 6 West Balkan candidates whatever their accession status. Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are vaguely mentioned and in a sad indication any part of UK that wishes to use the euro.
B) ECB is carefully ensuring as much of the Covid aid money as possible is being set aside to initiate a centralized bank treasury, an organ EU does not really have. Sovereign Currencies already barred and now a new list of how Covid aid must be spent – net zero, diversity etc – before you get any.
C) Increased control over money supply. The lowest value euro note is 5 which in many small member’s economies is not a very small denomination. These notes do not last long such that Croatia (immediately on euro take) Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Greece, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia wanted the 5 euro to be coinage. Now note printing is totally ECB controlled but coin minting is a nationally controlled sport allowing the nation some supply control and if need be leverage. ECB has penalized all these nations with a punitive audit.
Thus we have an ECB poised in the very next month’s to make a blunt-lanced tilt at a global economic preponderance or close to it.
D) Every possible effort will be made to move from cash economies to card and digitized
money to effect total control of tax receipts, spending and offshore savings.
2) ELECTIONS AND PRESIDENCIES
May 2024 sees MEP elections, the canonization of a new Commission and elections for the Council of Ministers and an EUParl president. Feed back here from Lucke, Sharpston, Il Conte, Salvini, Bogdanor, Ska Kellar, Barenbacher, Varoufakis.
This 2024 election will be very different to all before. The irons are already in the fire. Charles Michel – the notional EU head of state, as Turkey made clear – cannot stand again, he has served his two terms of two and a half years.
Roberta Metsola took over part of Sassoli’s term as EUParl president which counts as one complete term and could stand again in 2024 but will likely not, or be pushed, because of the Qatargate scandal and the lack of EUParl outside and conflict of interest safeguards. The Commission has already a new look in that the president of the Commission will not be his/her nation’s commissioner as well, but of ‘no nation’ above the 27 national Commissioners. There are no term limits on this presidency.
Also there is a new presidency for EUParl secretariat, the current Secretary-General is an Italian, Chioccetti, but Klaus Welle of Germany is vying. The eurozone presidency, currently eejit Pascal Donohue will be dropped
Now the MEP elections are also going to change. The EU will force a pan-EU psephology of two rounds, the first is standard simple PR, the second is the ‘European round’ that permits any European citizen to stand on any (but only one) list for any nation. This gives a good measure of control of national MEP elections to Brussels.
I have trusted feedback to suggest that VdL will stand again but as new president of the Commission, the president of EUParl will be EPP’s Manfred Weber and the president of the Council of Ministers, now seen as an ex-PM job, will be Leo Varadkar who has so ably helped EU punish UK for Brexit. He is free as of November 2024,
Finally, the ECB presidential term will be aligned with each 5 year EUParl/Commission term and Lagarde will get continuance for 5 years to keep France in the loop.
Bye the bye Germany’s QMV gets moved from 29 to 30 thus they get more MEPs, Poland moves to 28 and more MEPs.
The power lurch completed and now.
3) UNLEASH THE SHARKS IN THE ‘DIRECTIVE POOL’.
Access to the Commissioner’s Work papers thence the Directives and Regulation pools are now really tightened. Let me remind readers, directive when enforced means direct inclusion in EU member’s law, regulation means an EU member has 90 days in which to clone that EU regulation into national law.
I mention some of the sharks.
A) New Napoleonic style legacy and inheritance laws where the state decides who gets left what. This grinds in Malta, Cyprus, Ireland, some parts of Greece and the Nordics.
B) Centralised VAT law with EU primary on both %’s and target goods and services.
C) Centralised budget control = not only GDP % but spending detail, rules on company tax percentages, a ring-fenced 0.5% emergency GDP tax for EU, buy-in to EU energy policies and caps.
D) A general sanctions vehicle whereby EU can demand immediate economic sanction of any entity, including EU members.
E) A capital gains tax, regardless of time asset held, of not less than 20%.
SUMMARY
There you are! A massive lurch to a Germanised EU empire by end 2024. The key thrusts being putting the euro into some ‘reserve currency’ bracket through even more ECB control of 27 euro based national economies. The Germanisation of EU institutions with more powers, directives and regulations, already in place. Brexit punishment and attempts to crack the UK union continue and harden.
Wonder if Linemaker would want to comment and compare.
Richard Jones.
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