“How long do you think she’s got?”

 Afternoon,

“How long do you think she’s got?”

Source  - Daily Telegraph - 11/10/22

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Questions about Liz Truss’ future are on the lips of MPs here in Parliament as they return from their extended holiday.

Grant Shapps, the former transport secretary, gave the new Prime Minister 10 days to prove herself last week at the Conservative Party conference.

However, a new date has emerged which has given Truss’s supporters cause for hope: November 8, which is when a major shake up of constituencies is published.

The publication of details of the new seats for the next general election will trigger a dash for safe seats by MPs, eager to ensure they have a berth after the next general election.

For the Conservatives, it will trigger battles to move to a neighbouring constituency: the rules dictate that if an MP loses a significant proportion of a seat to a neighbour, they can ask to replace them as their MP.

And if a Tory MP faces losing their seat altogether they have to throw themselves at the mercy of the Conservative Party which will try to find them an alternative seat.

All this has a major bearing on the authority of Truss as it will tip the balance of power towards CCHQ and Number 10, which will suddenly find themselves holding the careers of Tory MPs in their hands.

Big names like Ben Wallace, Michael Gove and others could find themselves searching for a new seat or having to fight a much more marginal constituency at the next election.

This uncertainty is likely to go for months, giving CCHQ and 10 Downing St the “whip hand” over the careers of dozens of Tory MPs who are affected.

The final boundaries’ proposals will then be published in July next year and be enacted by the House of Commons (without a vote) in September.

One Truss ally told me that if the PM can survive until Nov 8 the uncertainty caused by the boundary review will mean that she will be safe for months after that.

A second Tory - a senior figure on the 1922 committee - told me: “Most colleagues are waiting until the boundary review is out in November. They don’t want to rock the boat ahead of that.”

The 1922 committee rules state that another confidence vote cannot be held for a year after the election of the new leader.

However - as we saw with Boris Johnson - that will be as much use as a chocolate fireguard if scores of letters are submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady.

One Cabinet minister was gloomy when I bumped into him in the Commons last night telling me: “We have just run out of steam.”

And the mood will not be calmed by another Bank of England intervention in the bond markets this morning.

The worry for Tories is that voters are tuning out from what ministers are saying, angry at what they see as reckless spending policies which will force them to pay more for their mortgages.

This is what happened to John Major’s Tory government in the years following Black Wednesday in the mid-90s. And there is a very real risk it will happen to Truss’s administration too.

Cheerio

Chopper