Boris Johnson urged to trigger Article 16 as expert warns Irish nationalists set to win Stormont election

 It comes after Liz Truss earlier this month put invoking the mechanism on hold due to the Ukraine crisis, but Brexiteers fear any delay

Source - Daily Telegraph 

26/03/22

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The Attorney General has been among senior Tories privately pushing for the Government to trigger Article 16 without delay, The Telegraph can disclose, as a Conservative election expert said Sinn Fein was on course to win control of the Northern Ireland executive within weeks.

Suella Braverman and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexit opportunities minister, are understood to have been privately pressing for Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, to trigger the mechanism that would allow ministers to override parts of the post-Brexit agreement with the EU.

Mrs Braverman is said to have provided formal legal advice stating that Article 16 can and should be triggered by the UK. She sits on the two Cabinet committees that oversee trade talks and the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

But sources said that the likelihood of the mechanism being triggered ahead of the Stormont poll on May 5 was now negligible, with the formal pre-election period beginning this week. 

The Telegraph revealed earlier this month that Ms Truss had set out plans to put the potential triggering of Article 16 on hold due to the Ukraine crisis and help Northern Ireland businesses with an “economic stimulus” package, including tax cuts, instead.

“The momentum has really been lost and I can't see it happening,” said one Whitehall source. “Ukraine has sucked the energy out of everybody.”

Many Brexiteers fear that the Government will lose its opportunity to obtain meaningful changes to the Northern Ireland protocol if talks are allowed to drift beyond the Stormont poll on May 5.

Lord Hayward predicted that Sinn Fein will “come out as the largest single party” in the election - an outcome that would result in Northern Ireland's first Sinn Fein first minister.

If Sinn Fein win the poll, Mr Johnson would face attempting to secure changes to the protocol that are opposed by Northern Ireland's first minister. 

Paul Givan, who was DUP first minister until his resignation last month, strongly supported the Government's calls for changes to the protocol, amid concerns that the document's requirements were harming Northern Ireland businesses.

Mrs Braverman and Mr Rees-Mogg are both former leaders of the European Research Group of Eurosceptic Tory MPs. David Jones, its deputy chairman, said that negotiations between Ms Truss and Maros Sefcovic, her EU counterpart, appeared to have become “bogged down” and said Article 16 should be triggered to revive serious negotiations.

“We need to find a way of getting it out of the mire and the best way of doing that is by invoking Article 16, which will be the precursor of a new negotiating mandate on behalf of the EU,” he said. “I think it ought to be done now.”

Lord Hayward said: “In Northern Ireland. I think there will be real constitutional issues, because for the first time Sinn Fein will actually come out as the largest single party in Northern Ireland.” He described Unionist parties as being “in a complete mess”, predicting that the Unionist vote would be split, allowing Sinn Fein to emerge as the largest party.

In an interview with The Telegraph, Ms Truss does not deny having shelved the idea of using the mechanism before May 5, simply insisting that Article 16 “remains on the table” as an option.

The Foreign Secretary wrote to Mr Johnson outlining a proposal to boost trade between Britain and Northern Ireland with tax breaks and a “unilateral green lane” allowing goods that would remain in the UK to cross the Irish sea with minimal paperwork. A source who discussed the plan with Mr Rees-Mogg said he was “open” to the idea.

The plan is seen by Ms Truss as a way to avoid a major confrontation with the European Union at a time when she is simultaneously helping to coordinate a united international response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

But Brexiteers fear that the Government's resolve to overhaul the Northern Ireland protocol is slipping.

Ministers had previously been determined that negotiations over the agreement should be over by the start of the pre-election, or “purdah”, period that precedes the Northern Ireland Assembly election due on May 5.

Michelle O'Neill, Sinn Fein's vice president, who was deputy first minister until Mr Givan's resignation triggered the collapse of the executive, is expected to become first minister in the event that Sinn Fein becomes the largest party in Stormont. 

She has defended the protocol, saying that it arose as a result of Sinn Fein's campaign for “special status” for Northern Ireland.