Absolutely Not The Daily Troll-o-Graph

 The nightmare scenario for German conservatives is unfolding before their eyes Source - Daily Telegraph - 31/03/22 Link Germany is facing a poisonous combination of rising recession risk and the highest inflation for half a century, even if it can avoid the full macroeconomic shock of a Russian energy blockade. The headline HICP inflation rate spiked to 7.6pc in March, well above expectations and a figure unseen since the “stagflation” crisis of the early 1970s.  It follows the steepest one-month fall recorded in the expectations component of the Ifo confidence index.  The manufacturing and broader sentiment indicators are now weaker than they were during the eurozone debt crisis, and not far short of the extreme capitulation levels of the global financial crisis in 2008.  The mood is likely to deteriorate further as the coalition government prepares contingency plans for energy rationing across swathes of industry.  Those plans will be activated if Russia pers...

 Should Ukraine be split, this will not be a frozen conflict like in the Korean peninsula   The US long been planning a comprehensive Ukrainian resistance to the invaders   Russia has big reserves of troops, but very few of them are anywhere near combat-ready Souce CAPX 30/03/22 Link The Russian army reached a ‘point of culmination’ on around March 20. This meant that with the available supplies and reserves, it could make no further significant advances. Local actions, such as its effort to take Mariupol, continue. But on all major fronts, Russia’s advance has been largely held by ferocious and competent Ukrainian resistance. Russia has hundreds of thousands of reserves, but very few have been mobilised and neither they nor their equipment are in any way combat-ready. Russia has stalled – and Vladimir Putin is reported to have redefined Russia’s main goal as ‘the liberation of Donbas’. This is the region in the east of Ukraine where fighting has been continuing since 201...

 Comparing future liabilities to annual departmental spending is deeply misleading   The public finances are actually in better shape than the Chancellor would like to admit   Sunak's overly cautious approach risks turning a temporary squeeze into a full-blown recession Source CAPX - 26/03/22 Link This week’s Spring Statement included some big, bold announcements, with obvious voter appeal. But the windfall from higher-than-expected tax receipts and the downside risks to economic growth mean that the Chancellor could, and probably should, have done much more. It is worth repeating that the public finances are in better shape than anticipated. Government borrowing is forecast to fall from 15% of GDP in 2020-21 to around 1% in 2026-27, with the headline debt measure falling from over 95% of GDP to 83%. This is despite the surge in inflation – and indeed partly because of it. Over time, the boost to tax revenues from higher nominal incomes and prices (think of all those extr...

 It comes after Liz Truss earlier this month put invoking the mechanism on hold due to the Ukraine crisis, but Brexiteers fear any delay Source - Daily Telegraph  26/03/22 Link The Attorney General has been among senior Tories privately pushing for the Government to trigger Article 16 without delay, The Telegraph can disclose, as a Conservative election expert said Sinn Fein was on course to win control of the Northern Ireland executive within weeks. Suella Braverman and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexit opportunities minister, are understood to have been privately pressing for Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, to trigger the mechanism that would allow ministers to override parts of the post-Brexit agreement with the EU. Mrs Braverman is said to have provided formal legal advice stating that Article 16 can and should be triggered by the UK. She sits on the two Cabinet committees that oversee trade talks and the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement. But sources said that the li...

 The EU Treaty's vague assertions about collective defence could lead to serious misunderstandings   The heat of war has obscured questions about corruption and the rule of law in Ukraine   Ukrainian membership would fundamentally change the fabric of the EU Sourcev- CAPX  - 25/03/22 Link Speaking via video link to the Italian parliament on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the need for ‘reconstruction of Ukraine after this war. Together with you, together with Italy. Together with Europe. Together – in the European Union.’ Ukraine wants the European Union – and if statements by EU leaders are anything to go by, the EU wants Ukraine too. There can, meanwhile, be little doubt about Zelensky’s assertion that Ukraine has ‘earned’ EU membership after its inspiring fight for national sovereignty – if that’s what the country wants. But those within the bloc calling for Ukraine to join, either now or at some vague point in the future, will eventually...

 Scholz and his Government stand convicted of hypocrisy, cowardice and myopia Source  - Daily Telegraph - 19/03/22 Link  2022 • 5:00pm It was fortunate for Olaf Scholz that he could hide behind his face mask when Volodymyr Zelensky addressed German parliamentarians on Thursday. The Ukrainian President gave one of the most powerful speeches ever heard in the building’s 128-year-history — but in reply the German Chancellor had nothing to say. The House of Commons and the US Congress reacted to Zelensky’s heartbreaking appeals with calls to action and military aid. The German Bundestag applauded politely for less than a minute before moving on to business as usual. Scholz later tweeted that “we will do everything possible to give diplomacy a chance” — code for carving up Ukraine to placate Putin. In a courteous yet devastating oration of less than ten minutes, Zelensky exposed the fictions on which German policy has been based since the Cold War: that it was safe to become d...

 The OBR's outlook for the coming years look inescapably bleak   Amid the gloom, Sunak tried to rally the troops with some classic Tory tunes   We can't carry on basing benefits on inflation figures from six months ago Source - CAPX - 23/03/22 Today’s Spring Statement was a strange beast. Neither a low-key trot through the public finances, nor as dense as a Budget, but too broad to be adequately dismissed as a ‘mini-Budget’. Striking the right tone was a challenge. A sombre opening reflected the prevailing economic and geopolitical climate, which was decidedly gloomy even before Putin rolled his tanks into Ukraine a month ago. It was noteworthy that we didn’t hear anything on energy or defence spending, two of the most hotly discussed topics over the last month – though Sunak alluded to ‘further measures’ on energy security in the weeks to come. But amid the sobriety of the current moment, he also wanted to cheer the troops and signal to voters that he had a plan for clas...

 This first phase of the war is over. Russian forces will have to regroup and find a different strategy Source - Daily Telegraph. - 22/03/22 Link The Russian campaign in Ukraine may have reached its culminating point. In short, Russian forces may no longer be able to achieve their strategic objective by offensive operations. If so, it would mark a turning point. It would not, however, mean the war is over, or that Ukraine has achieved victory. An effective stalemate might see the war entering an even more devastating phase, with Russian forces digging in and switching from wide-scale ground attack to besieging, bombarding and starving the major cities, while reinforcing and preparing for a renewed offensive. Indications that Vladimir Putin may believe his campaign has culminated include a new defensive effort to interdict combat supplies and troops being pushed into the fight. In recent days we have seen attacks in the west against logistics bases, airfields and concentration centr...

Comparing Brexit to the war was sickening. Luckily some liberal saints were on hand to call him out Source - Daily Telegraph - 21/03/21 Link When the PM compared Ukraine’s war to Brexit, both motivated by freedom, he said, I almost threw up. The idea of a politician using the struggle of those brave people to make a cheap point about Europe was so disgusting that not only will I never vote Tory again, but I might not vote at all – and spend my days on some Hebridean island shouting “Damn you Boris” at the sky.   I’m not alone. A straw poll of important people on Twitter indicates that the entire country, nay Western alliance, is appalled by words that Guy Verhofstadt called “insane” and Donald Tusk said “offend the Ukrainians, the British and common sense.” The SNP’s Ian Blackford labelled the speech “morally repugnant”. Ed Davey, who runs the Lib Dems, compared Boris to Basil Fawlty. Michael Heseltine said “millions of Conservatives will be ashamed” and Alastair Campbell wrot...

Both the Left and the Right have their own versions of this ridiculous idea. Neither has any credence Source - Daily Telegraph - 12/03/22 Link Given the mass neurosis that now passes for Western political conscience I suppose this was inevitable. But it is still shocking to hear apparently rational commentators claim that somehow all of this horror – the bombing of civilian neighbourhoods, the missile attacks on maternity hospitals, the threat to remove a democratic government – is our fault. It was not Russia’s maniacal fixation on an ancient mission to unite with its Ukrainian brethren that drove this onslaught. Or even the more cynical fear of its leaders that their nation was being eclipsed in the global game. No, the real cause of this unspeakable mayhem is “Nato expansionism” – which is to say, the desire of Ukraine to seek the protection of the West and the West’s inclination to offer it.  Absurdly, this desire on the one side and willingness to consider such a request on th...

 Even if its mass sacking was within the law, no company can afford to behave with such crass insensitivity Source Daily Telegraph 19/03/22 Link Congratulations DP World, owner of P&O Ferries, which has succeeded where all others have failed in making the National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT), arguably Britain’s most militant and disruptive trade union, seem like the good guys.  It’s quite an achievement; this is a union whose repeated strikes on the rail network and London Underground, causing widespread misery, make it one of the most hated institutions in the land. Yet there’s no doubt where public sympathies lie on this one; given the chance, UK citizens would throw open their doors to our dispossessed seafarers as gladly as they are for the influx of Ukrainian refugees, driven from their homes by Putin’s murderous invasion. DP World has almost irredeemably blackened its own name. It is rare in this day and age to see a management mishandle a sup...

 Intolerant of criticism, the SNP has presided over failure after failure while doing little to stop the rise of toxic anti-English abuse Source - Daily Telegraph - 18/03/22 Link Camilla Tominey One of the consequences of devolution is that, for much of the time, we English only get glimpses of what life is really like north of Hadrian’s Wall. Scottish Nationalists generally seem to prefer it that way, except when they are asking to be fed another bottle of Barnett Formula. According to the Institute of Fiscal Studies, funding per person for public services in Scotland is 30 per cent higher than in England, which perhaps goes some way to explaining why the SNP thinks it can afford to run the country like a banana republic. Having controlled Scotland’s devolved legislature since 2007, their unfettered influence appears to have totally poisoned a once great nation. The latest example is the former SNP MSP Tricia Marwick, who this week launched an extraordinary attack on a bunch of st...

 Claims of Anglophobia as people south of the border reportedly made to feel increasingly unwelcome in wake of independence row Source - Daily Telegraph - 16/03/22 Link A Scottish council is to consider targeting anti-English racism following claims that it has become more prevalent than prejudice against Muslims. Moray Council this week voted to adopt an official definition of Islamophobia, in a move it said would help root out discrimination, harrassment and victimisation of members of the faith. Claire Feaver, a Tory councillor, backed the move - but said the council should also recognise anti-English behaviour, which she said was a far more common problem within its boundaries. "I think we also need to recognise along with Islamophobia, Anglophobia," she told a meeting of the council’s corporate committee. "As a minority group in Moray, I get more emails and telephone calls from people who’ve suffered from Anglophobia and I’d like to flag that up. "Anglophobia i...

 Perhaps it’s because my generation had it so good that we tend to overreact to unexceptional events Source - Daily Telegraph 15/03/22 Link There we were, two years ago, fretting about the onset of what was already described as a pandemic but which had yet to take a grip. By and large, things were not that bad at all. The racing fraternity had gathered en masse at Cheltenham for the great National Hunt annual meeting, mostly oblivious to the public health calamity that was about to ensue. That event was subsequently seen as a great seeder of Covid, as was Liverpool’s Champions League match with Atlético Madrid around the same time. Back then we called them “super-spreader” episodes because it stood to reason that thousands of people milling together must pass on easily transmissible illnesses. But while that is demonstrably true, the pandemic would have happened even if Cheltenham had been cancelled. The virus was already here, brought in by visitors and skiers returning from the A...

 Ban on sales of luxury products worth more than £250 is part of the new measures aimed at crippling the Russian economy Source - Daily Telegraph - 14/03/22 Link Germany insisted on watered-down EU sanctions against Russia on Monday night, in a move that sparked fury from other members of the bloc. Berlin demanded “carve outs” for raw materials vital to its industrial heartlands, leaving capitals in eastern Europe dismayed. Hours earlier Christian Lindner, Germany's finance minister, said his country favoured tougher measures to heap “maximum pressure on Putin”. Following fractious talks, a furious Polish envoy fired off an email to the bloc's other 26 embassies expressing disgust. EU ambassadors only agreed on a fourth round of measures against the Kremlin after marathon negotiations in Brussels. The sanctions were only given the green light after a long and ill-tempered debate between increasingly divided member states. Doves v hawks EU diplomats say two clear opposing camps ...

 Writing exclusively for the Telegraph, PM says Russian leader has exploited our need for his oil and gas, but now we must take back control Source - daily Telegraph 14/03/22 Link hen Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine the first time round, in 2014, the West made a terrible mistake. The Russian leader had committed an act of violent aggression and taken a huge chunk out of a sovereign country – and we let him get away with it. We decided we could somehow go back to normality. Economic relations did not just resume – they intensified, with the West taking more Russian gas than ever before, becoming more dependent on the goodwill of Putin and more exposed to the vagaries of the global gas and oil price. And so when he finally came to launch his vicious war in Ukraine, he knew the world would find it very hard to punish him. He knew that he had created an addiction. That is why he feels able to bomb maternity hospitals. That is why he is emboldened enough to launch indiscriminate assaults...