The Kremlin’s aggression has given Nato a new lease of life, and forced Germany and others to change tack
Source - Daily Telegraph - 24/02/22
Michael Fallon
Is Vladimir Putin really winning? He’s invaded another country again. He has Europe’s gas bills in his hands. Former US president Donald Trump thinks he’s a genius. A serious British commentator describes the Kremlin’s strategy as “brilliantly disguised”.
But it’s a little too easy to conclude that the allies have been outplayed. Of course, Putin will have enjoyed the political tourism to Moscow; yes, there’s been some naivety, though it’s surely always better to try to prevent war. But now there are no more illusions to shatter. Once again Putin has broken his word, broken Russia’s own treaty commitments, and broken international law.
So look more closely at the West’s response. Across Europe there have been a series of impressive further commitments to the Nato alliance and, in particular, to the defence of the Baltic states and Poland. American troops have been flown across the Atlantic; hundreds more British, French and German troops are being deployed to Nato’s eastern border.
Nato today is in fact stronger, not weaker. Far from being “brain-dead” as President Macron once called it, the alliance has surely recovered its primary purpose – the defence of Europe. All Nato members are spending much more on defence since we first agreed the 2 per cent of GDP target: 10 countries meet it already and 25 members have passed the second target of spending 20 per cent of their defence budgets on equipment.
Under the military leadership of our own former defence chief, Sir Stuart Peach, Nato has modernised its military strategy and refocused on deterrence and defence. Individual members’ expertise in hybrid warfare, cyber capability and information operations are better co-ordinated. Troops are moved more rapidly across internal Nato borders. Every year different Nato members share air-policing missions in the Baltic from Estonia and over the Black Sea from Romania. The Royal Navy has led a series of regular Nato ship visits into the Black Sea.
And let’s not forget what really worries Putin – that Nato might expand. But Nato, though a purely defensive alliance, is expanding. It now includes Montenegro and North Macedonia, leaving only three of the 10 Balkan nations outside. It has listed Georgia, Moldova, Bosnia Herzegovina and indeed Ukraine as “aspiring members”. More significantly still, both Sweden and Finland are now Nato partners, regularly exercising and training together with Nato forces. In 2017, I encouraged both to sign up to the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, a more flexible 10-strong grouping that my successor Ben Wallace convened again this week.
Secondly, Ukraine is better placed to defend itself than when Putin annexed Crimea. When I first visited seven years ago, I found a very poorly equipped and understandably demoralised military. Today, thanks to a huge international effort, in which British Army trainers have played a notable part, the Ukrainian army is a far stronger force and much better equipped. Of course, it remains outnumbered by Russian forces but nobody should be in any doubt as to the effect on Ukrainian national solidarity of Putin’s bullying and subversion in Donbas.
Thirdly, look at what Putin is achieving in Germany. There the new coalition government has already frozen the Nord Stream 2 pipeline; it now has to rethink completely its future energy policy. Italy, Hungary, and others likewise now know that they have been far too dependent on supplies from Gazprom. The EU will accelerate its energy market reforms, increasing the use of dual flow pipelines and inter-connectors between member states. Far from dividing Europe, Putin may in fact be pushing it together to face up to reality.
There is much more to be done. The key capitals – Berlin, London, Paris and Washington – do need better and faster security co-ordination. We will certainly need more sanctions and we will need to be firmer than last time in enforcing them.
We should also, unlike Putin, learn from our mistakes. We welcomed the ambition of countries like Ukraine to join our Western democratic communities, Nato and the EU. We saw it as a compliment yet we didn’t do much about it.
But if we will the end, we must also will the means. Shamefully unsupported by European funding after the 2014 revolution, much of eastern Ukraine was left behind with Soviet-era standards of infrastructure and investment. Fragile democracies need our long-term support. Stronger defence, modern infrastructure, and a higher standard of living are the keys to their future.
Russia has military might. Putin may well exercise it further in eastern Ukraine or in all of it, in defiance of international law and opinion. But the only people who can really defeat the West are ourselves. We should not make the mistake of underestimating our own strength. Unlike Putin, we have both friends and values: let’s keep them close.
Sir Michael Fallon was the British defence secretary from 2014 to 2017
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