Chaos at No 10 as Brexit negotiator leaves post over coronavirus restrictions, while Sajid Javid warns data may force new curbs
Source - Daily Telegraph 18/12/21
Lord Frost quit the Cabinet on Saturday night over concerns about Boris Johnson's Covid-19 curbs and the Government's "direction of travel", as the Prime Minister considered calls for a third national lockdown beginning as soon as this week.
The Cabinet Office minister, who was leading Mr Johnson’s post-Brexit negotiations with the European Union, resigned over the Government's Plan B Covid measures, having held private concerns for months about coronavirus restrictions and the Government's economic policy, including its planned National Insurance hike.
In his resignation letter, Lord Frost reminded Mr Johnson of his pledge that the lifting of restrictions in the summer would be "irreversible". He also urged the Prime Minister to "deliver on the opportunities" of Brexit by moving "as fast as possible" to "a lightly regulated, low-tax, entrepreneurial economy".
The resignation of such a close ally creates a major new crisis for the Prime Minister. His concerns about the direction of the Government echo the views of many Tory backbenchers.
One senior Tory backbencher said: "The trouble is Frost speaks for the party. This is the beginning of the end." A senior minister said they were not at all surprised at Lord Frost quitting the Cabinet, adding: “I know he opposed Plan B. The PM’s supporters are the ones who are least keen on the restrictions. The ones who want to undermine him want the restrictions. Frost going just proves that.”
Lord Frost initially offered to resign earlier this month over Plan B, and had been persuaded to stay on until the New Year. He quit with immediate effect on Saturday night after news of his resignation leaked.
Lord Frost's resignation emerged as the Prime Minister was weighing up a "sliding scale" of new Covid-19 restrictions, with Sajid Javid warning that ministers may have to introduce new measures on the basis of "early and patchy" data.
As the Government's scientific advisers called for an “immediate” curtailment of indoor mixing to combat the spread of omicron, the Prime Minister was considering a range of potential measures, from new guidance on restricting social contact, to a third national lockdown.
Disagreement over new coronavirus restrictions
Lord Frost, a former adviser to Mr Johnson during the Prime Minister's time as Foreign Secretary, was among a series of Cabinet members opposed to new restrictions.
Last weekend, it separately emerged that a senior official had briefed European journalists that the Government was planning to back down on its demands to free Northern Ireland from the oversight of the European Court of Justice - a significant demand that Lord Frost had set out in the talks.
Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, also resisted the push for further Covid-19 measures on Saturday in a conference call convened by Mr Johnson.
Ministers were told that 62 per cent of Covid-19 cases in England and 80 per cent in London were now omicron, with the capital said to be "just a few days ahead" of other regions.
One of those on the call said: "Today's call doesn't make any difference. 46 per cent of people are vaccinated, and we started with the older groups, so why would anyone want to lock down again?”
Writing for The Telegraph, the Health Secretary admitted that there is "much we still don't know" about the omicron variant. However, he said the "most important trading decisions" he made as an investment banker was before there was "clear" data - at which point, "it may be too late to react".
His intervention exposes a significant divide in Cabinet, with Kwasi Kwarteng, the Business Secretary, Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Leader of the Commons, also said to be opposed to adopting new restrictions in the absence of more data, along with Mr Sunak and Lord Frost.
Michael Gove, the Levelling Up Secretary, is said to favour further restrictions to curb the spread of omicron, along with Mr Javid. One minister claimed: "Michael Gove wants to lock everyone up forever."
Prospect of a second cancelled Christmas
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) minutes released on Saturday raised the prospect of a second cancelled Christmas, after the group called for an immediate curtailment of indoor mixing in order to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.
In a meeting on Thursday, the scientific advisers concluded that waiting until after Christmas to impose restrictions would be too late.
The group described indoor mixing as “the biggest risk factor” in the spread of omicron, suggesting “reducing group sizes, increasing physical distancing, reducing duration of contacts and closing high risk premises”.
It is understood that senior government scientists have suggested to ministers that restrictions on indoor gatherings should last until two weeks after everyone has had the chance to take a booster. That would mean late January at the earliest.
On Saturday, the UK Health Security Agency recorded 10,059 cases of the new variant - three times as many as on Friday. The number of overall Covid infections exceeded 90,000 for the second day running.
Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, declared a major incident in London amid “huge concern” at the spread of omicron across the capital.
But Cabinet members were said to have warned that the country risked falling into a cycle of annual winter restrictions if the Government continued to resort to draconian measures, even when much of the population has received a Covid-19 vaccine.
Another of those on the call said: "There is a feeling that we don't have the information that we need for further action. Scientists on the one hand are telling us we need to go into lockdown. But we can't make the right decision either way without the right data."
Health officials have suggested that definitive data on the link between omicron and hospitalisations is not expected until the New Year.
However Professor Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, is said to have suggested that some new data may be available in a few days.
Mr Javid warned that more time is needed for the rollout of booster jabs, which provide "strong protection against omicron".
'Circuit breaker' or longer lockdown?
On Saturday, it emerged that officials were drawing up plans for a two-week "circuit breaker" which would ban people from meeting members of other households indoors.
Senior government sources insisted that, as of last night, no specific plans for new measures had been submitted to Cabinet ministers or Mr Johnson. Ministers were believed to be sceptical about whether the benefits of locking down for just a fortnight would outweigh the damage caused by draconian restrictions.
Senior government figures are understood to believe that a longer lockdown would have a significant effect on reducing transmission and preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed, but many ministers and MPs are fiercely opposed to locking down for a third time.
On Saturday, Downing Street aides were discussing options for slowing the spread of omicron in the face of calls by SAGE and warnings about the potential for the NHS to be overwhelmed.
The Chancellor is said to be concerned that much of the current alarm in Whitehall is based on only one set of modelling.
'We have to be clear-eyed about the challenge omicron presents'
In his article for The Telegraph, Mr Javid insisted that introducing Plan B restrictions last week "brought me no joy" because "promoting individual freedom and opportunity is one of the reasons I got into politics".
"But we have to be clear-eyed about the challenge omicron presents," he added.
"Our strategy since it emerged has been and remains to buy time for our scientists to assess the threat and build up our defences."
"The reality is, there is much we still don’t know about omicron. We are faced with uncertainty and we do not have all the data we would want but as policy makers we have to work with what we have and not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
“The most important trading decisions I made in my past career were when the data was early and patchy, but a trend was emerging. Once that trend leads to a clear outcome, it may be too late to react to it.
"So let’s look at what we do know. We face a tsunami of infections in the coming days and weeks. Omicron spreads at a pace we have never seen before and has been doubling around every two to three days.”
A tougher new lockdown was announced in The Netherlands on Saturday, with all businesses ordered to close except essential shops.
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