PLUS: Alan Cochrane says few Scots will be surprised that the English are fed up with us and the perpetual clamour about independence.
Source - Daily Telegraph - 28/05/21
The scale of apathy towards Scottish independence by English voters has been revealed by an exclusive Telegraph poll, which found only 20 per cent “strongly oppose” separation.
Aside from Covid, it has become the most pressing issue of Boris Johnson’s premiership.
With Nicola Sturgeon insisting it is a case of “when not if” the SNP holds a second independence referendum, the Prime Minister knows the future of the UK lies in his hands.
Despite Scotland’s First Minister failing to win an outright majority at Holyrood earlier this month, she appears hell-bent on Scottish separatism.
This week, she even went so far as to suggest that she would consider ministerial posts for the radical Left-wing Scottish Greens to shore up her mandate for another ballot. The SNP won 64 seats in the election - one short of a majority - and the Greens currently have seven seats, raising the prospect of a coalition.
Yet as Downing Street continues to mobilise against a second vote, what do English voters make of the tartan-clad opposition to the union?
In a worrying development for the Prime Minister, it seems attitudes toward our Caledonian cousins are apathetic at best.
A Telegraph poll on Scottish independence has not found the levels of overwhelming support for a united Britain that Union Jack waving Mr Johnson may have been hoping for.
The survey by Savanta ComRes asked 1,894 English adults for their views on everything from the idea of installing a border between England and Scotland to whether the Scots should keep the pound.
Asked to what extent do you support or oppose Scottish Independence, just 32 per cent said they opposed it, and only 20 per cent said they “strongly oppose” separation.
Twenty five per cent actually supported the Scots going it alone, with 30 per cent so disinterested they are neither in support nor opposition.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, younger people care less than older voters. While nearly half (46 per cent) of English adults aged over 55 are against Scottish independence, just one in five (21 per cent) 18 to 34 year olds say the same.
Labour voters in England are more likely to say they support than oppose (37 per cent versus 19 per cent).
The Barnett Formula is unpopular in England
With the Barnett Formula, the mechanism used by the Treasury to allocate money to Scotland having already proved unpopular in England, the poll found little support for more funding to be given to persuade Scots to stay.
A third (29 per cent) opposed the move with 26 per cent in support. Older people were the most opposed to a financial sweetener, with half (52 per cent) of those aged over 55 against it and just 15 per cent in support.
The English also seem disinclined to allow the Scots to continue using the pound if they leave the union. Asked if they would prefer them to keep using sterling, 35 per cent said yes but 30 per cent said no, while 35 per cent were undecided.
It comes after a report compiled by the pro-union economists suggested in February that Scotland would struggle to manage its £40 billion deficit if it attempted to launch a new currency.
Shockingly, the survey also found nearly four in 10 (38 per cent) English voters think there should be vehicle checks at the border if Scotland breaks away. Forty two per cent disagreed, while 21 per cent didn’t know.
First vote resulted in 45 per cent in favour of independence
The last time the Scots voted on independence was in 2014, when the referendum finished 45 per cent in favour and 55 per cent against.
Ms Sturgeon's predecessor Alex Salmond said that it was a “once in a generation” event, but she has been pushing for a re-run ever since she became party leader two months after the ballot.
Signaling her readiness for a constitutional battle after securing a historic fourth term on May 8, she said her Government would legislate for the vote “and if Boris Johnson wants to stop that he would have to go to court”.
It came after the Prime Minister suggested her failure to win an outright majority would make it “irresponsible and reckless” to hold another vote. During a subsequent phonecall, Ms Sturgeon apparently told Mr Johnson that a second independence referendum is “a matter of when, not if”.
Asked if the English should be given a say in any future vote, 32 per cent said yes and 44 per cent said no. Two in five (43 per cent) Conservative voters in England say they should be able to vote in a Scottish independence referendum, compared to just a quarter (26 per cent) of Labour voters who say the same.
English voters do not seem to have much faith in Scotland being successful on its own, however.
Although 31 per cent believe England will be weaker without Scotland (compared to 18 per cent who thought it would be stronger), nearly half (44 per cent) of English voters said they thought independence would “fail”. Only a third (34 per cent) believe Scotland would thrive outside of the UK.
Young English are more confident of Scottish Independence’s success
The young are more confident of its success than the old, with half (51 per cent) of English adults aged 18 to 34 believing an independent Scotland would thrive, compared just 37 per cent of 35-54 year olds and 19 per cent of those aged over 55.
Three in five (62 per cent) of English Conservative voters believe an independent Scotland would fail, twice the proportion of English Labour voters who say the same (31 per cent).
Savanta ComRes pollster Chris Hopkins said: “This poll shows that English voters very much feel as though Scottish independence is a Scottish issue, with just a third off English adults saying they should get a vote in any future referendum, and little appetite for the UK Government providing extra financial incentive to persuade Scotland to stay in the union.
It was interesting here that Labour voters seemed more supportive of Scottish independence than voters of other parties, but any such support from Labour’s leadership would likely guarantee many more Conservative Prime Ministers, with Labour likely to be so reliant on the SNP for a coalition or pact were it to ever get back to Downing Street.”
Savanta ComRes interviewed 1,894 English adults aged 18+ online between May 21 to 23, 2021.
The prices are worth paying to maintain the real 'Auld Alliance'
Few Scots will be all that surprised that the English are getting increasingly fed up with us and the seemingly perpetual clamour about independence, says Alan Cochrane.
The words ‘whingeing Jocks’ trip off English tongues much more readily nowadays than they used to.
And when you think about it, how could it be otherwise? Successive nationalist governments in Edinburgh, and especially that headed by Nicola Sturgeon, always insist that they don’t deliberately seek to get up English noses in their perpetual search for slights - real or imagined - from London.
But poisoning the well in relations between the two countries, however inadvertently, as they’d claim, is one of the most favourite shots in their locker.
Beyond the constant bickering from SNP ministers that they are being short changed at every turn by their UK counterparts in discussions about Brexit, road and rail transport and Scotland’s share of the United Kingdom’s wealth, there are also nasty little jibes from the more ardent Nats.
Only last week a Glasgow councillor tweeted, after the UK finished last, as usual, in the Eurovision Song Contest that Scotland ‘hated’ the UK too.
Only 32 per cent of English voters oppose independence for Scotland
Nevertheless, with our poll suggesting that only 32 per cent of English voters oppose independence for Scotland and 25 per cent actually supporting the end of the 300 year union of these two former sworn enemies, it is perhaps time for people in both countries to take stock of a worrying situation.
Not that Scotland seems to discuss anything else; independence is the SNP’s only real policy and hardly a day passes when it’s not dominating the news agenda. I accept that it’s different in England; after all, as our poll shows, 42 per cent of English voters believe that the issue is one for Scots only, while only 32 per cent want a say in the issue.
That said, I do think there is a case for urging the English to get over their entirely justified annoyance about Scots’ harping on about separation and realise that parties opposed to independence got more votes than the SNP and their Green allies in the May 6 election.
As was proved conclusively in 2014, in a vote that Nicola Sturgeon said was a ‘once in a lifetime’ event, most of us don’t want to break up Britain.
Moreover, perhaps more importantly, the English should consider what effect Scottish independence would have on England. It is a well-known irritant for the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish that the English believe that the words ‘United Kingdom’ and ‘Britain’ are simply different words for England.
But would the UK still be ‘united’ if Scotland left it? Would it need another name? How would that affect the UK’s standing in the world? For instance, would a less than united UK still merit its permanent seat on the United Nations’ Security Council; after all there are many countries out there who already reckon they should have our seat.
Kingdom of Great Britain was established in 1707
And what about the word Britain, and the Kingdom of Great Britain, established in 1707 when James the Sixth of Scotland became the First of England?
Boris Johnson’s government is trying hard to sell the term ‘Global Britain’ post Brexit - not just to the people who live here but also to the rest of the world; indeed there’s a naval task force sailing across the world at present, aiming to prove ‘Britain’s Global Reach’ when it comes to defence issues.
Would the term Global England have the same cachet?
Personally, I reckon that most English voters would prefer things to stay as they are. Of course there are irritations between such close neighbours, money being one of them, such as the favourable deal Scotland gets from the Barnett formula but also and the eye-watering sums spent on projects like Crossrail and HS2.
A mature debate on both sides of the border would prove that they’re prices worth paying to maintain the real 'Auld Alliance' - the one between Scotland and England.
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