Well here we go. By next week we will be less than a month away from the deadline to agree a transition period extension with the EU. Currently there are no signs that the UK will agree to an extension and little possibility in agreeing a fair, mutually beneficial trade deal with the EU which respects our status as a Sovereign Nation.
Here's a couple of interesting articles from which we can get an indication of what to expect.
Daily Telegraph 29/05/20
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/29/no-10s-refusal-bend-cummings-bodes-eu-negotiations/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
No 10's refusal to bend to pressure over Cummings is a warning to Brussels
Boris Johnson's resoluteness bodes well for EU negotiations
The EU has been watching this week’s Dominic Cummings debacle closely. Whilst figures from Donald Tusk to Guy Verhofstadt have joked about it on their Twitter feeds, the Government's resolve through the crisis is a warning to Brussels about Team UK's ability to withstand pressure. It can only bode well for the prospects of achieving a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU by the end of this year.
The UK will not achieve a good agreement with the EU unless the bloc believes in our willingness to walk away without one. If, as before, Eurocrats believe they can merrily string Britain along pursuing lucrative extension after lucrative extension as an alternative to departure there is no doubt that they will try. The ability to withstand the torrent of media, interest group, and political pressure to push ahead with no Free Trade Agreement if needs be will be pivotal.
Had the Government buckled to the demand of firing its most pivotal adviser off the back of one “minor” drive, as the overwhelming majority of the media agitated, many across the channel (along with Team Remain here in Britain) would no doubt have learned the lesson that this is a government that folds to external pressure.
The only future relationship outcome that would become less likely as a result of a Cummings departure from No 10 would be the one most of the country wants – a Canada-style Free Trade Agreement. No Dominic Cummings in Downing Street would in all likelihood prompt a sizable chunk of the fiercely loyal Vote Leave operation at the heart of Government to fall away too, throwing the negotiation plan into chaos.
When a cabal of MPs attempted to remove Dominic Cummings as Director of Vote Leave in 2016, the coup was defeated though a loyalty pact with pivotal campaign staff agreeing ‘if Dom goes, we go too.’ Top advisers in the most crucial Downing Street units will have no doubt made their feelings clear this time around too.
Downing Street stripped of its Vote Leave components may well have acted with a very different resolve from the one seen at present. Negotiations overseen by Cummings and his Vote Leave compatriots can be guaranteed to have the maverick resolve to walk away. Without them, the EU may well be encouraged to take a riskier path.
That riskier path would not guarantee an extension, although the EU would be more likely to believe it would. A toxic combination. The prisoner’s dilemma of negotiation could see the bloc scrabbling for more than it would ever reasonably be expected to win and both sides left with less as a result. The more the EU questions UK resolve, the more likely they are to end up with a losing scenario.
There is a reason why the governments viewed favourably in British history have been those most willing to take less than popular decisions in the short term for the greater good. Change does not come easily. This Government’s ability to stand firm will ultimately decide whether Boris Johnson ascends to the Prime Ministerial category of Margaret Thatcher, or becomes another Ted Heath.
This week began to answer those vital questions of resolve. This is starting to look like a government that will not bend in the wind. On matters viewed as pivotal, Boris Johnson will stand resolute. And history will thank him for it.
Daily Telegraph - 29/05/20
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/29/uk-chief-negotiator-rules-fish-financial-services-brexit-deal/
UK chief negotiator rules out fish for financial services Brexit deal
EU and UK negotiators meet next week after the last round ended in mutual recrimination
Britain’s chief Brexit negotiator has ruled out any deal giving European boats access to UK waters in return for better conditions for British financial services in the EU’s Single Market.
The EU and the UK are deeply divided over fishing in free trade negotiations ahead of the next round of talks, which start on Monday, David Frost told peers in the European Union Select Committee on Thursday.
Brussels also rejected British calls for an improved system of regulatory recognition for the City of London than the “equivalence” model currently on offer, during the last round of negotiations. Those talks ended in deadlock and mutual recrimination with both sides urging each other to drop their red lines.
Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, and Phil Hogan, the EU’s trade commissioner, have both suggested that a “fish for financial services” compromise could be struck to break the deadlock between the two sides. Mr Hogan, who is Ireland's EU commissioner, said yesterday, "Perhaps the United Kingdom has come to the conclusion that there’s not going to be a deal.”
“I don’t think fisheries is something we are going to link to anything,” Boris Johnson’s top Brexit official said.
The Political Declaration, a joint document for the trade talks, said that a deal on fishing and financial services should be completed by July, ahead of the end of year deadline for the trade deal to be finalised.
Mr Frost said he thought the deadline would be missed and repeated that the UK would not ask for an extension to the transition period to allow time for more trade negotiations beyond December 31.
“I'm sure we'll carry on talking after June 30. Obviously, at some point, there will need to be a negotiation on the arrangements for 21, whether there's an agreement or not,” Mr Frost said.
“If there isn't an agreement that will reflect the fact that we're in the independent coastal state, and we'll control access, and fishing in our waters at that point.”
He added, “So, that is the reality that we have to contend with, if the EU doesn't evolve its position and try and reach an agreement with us.”
Britain wants a Norway-style fishing agreement with the EU with annual negotiations on fishing opportunities, based on zonal attachment. Zonal attachment is a system of evaluating fish stocks based on where fish currently are rather than the system of historic catch patterns that underpins the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy.
The EU wants a fishing agreement “under existing conditions” with reciprocal access to UK waters and no zonal attachment, which would benefit British fishermen. Michel Barnier has also ruled out annual negotiations.
Financial services represents a far larger part of the UK economy than fishing, which comprises less than 1 percent of GDP but the Government has promised that Brexit will mean the revival of the totemic industry.
700,000 tonnes of fish and shellfish are caught each year by EU boats in UK waters and about 70 percent of the catch by British boats is sold to the EU market.
“You may have to make concessions in areas like fishing in order to get concessions from us in areas like financial services,” Mr Varadkar said in January after Mr Hogan suggested a last minute compromise was possible.
In the last round of Brexit talks, UK negotiators demanded Britain be consulted on any equivalence decision on financial services. Equivalence can be withdrawn in as little as 30 days notice in some areas by the European Commission and without a right of appeal.
Mr Barnier described the British demand as a failure to understand the consequences of Brexit.
Micheal Gove, who spoke at the Select Committee with Mr Frost, said that the EU risked harming itself if it froze the City of London out of the Single Market.
Raising barriers to London’s deep and broad capital markets would drive up costs for investors in EU companies, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster said.
“It would be another example of potential self-harm on the EU’s part,” he said.
Here's a couple of interesting articles from which we can get an indication of what to expect.
Daily Telegraph 29/05/20
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/29/no-10s-refusal-bend-cummings-bodes-eu-negotiations/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
No 10's refusal to bend to pressure over Cummings is a warning to Brussels
Boris Johnson's resoluteness bodes well for EU negotiations
The EU has been watching this week’s Dominic Cummings debacle closely. Whilst figures from Donald Tusk to Guy Verhofstadt have joked about it on their Twitter feeds, the Government's resolve through the crisis is a warning to Brussels about Team UK's ability to withstand pressure. It can only bode well for the prospects of achieving a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU by the end of this year.
The UK will not achieve a good agreement with the EU unless the bloc believes in our willingness to walk away without one. If, as before, Eurocrats believe they can merrily string Britain along pursuing lucrative extension after lucrative extension as an alternative to departure there is no doubt that they will try. The ability to withstand the torrent of media, interest group, and political pressure to push ahead with no Free Trade Agreement if needs be will be pivotal.
Had the Government buckled to the demand of firing its most pivotal adviser off the back of one “minor” drive, as the overwhelming majority of the media agitated, many across the channel (along with Team Remain here in Britain) would no doubt have learned the lesson that this is a government that folds to external pressure.
The only future relationship outcome that would become less likely as a result of a Cummings departure from No 10 would be the one most of the country wants – a Canada-style Free Trade Agreement. No Dominic Cummings in Downing Street would in all likelihood prompt a sizable chunk of the fiercely loyal Vote Leave operation at the heart of Government to fall away too, throwing the negotiation plan into chaos.
When a cabal of MPs attempted to remove Dominic Cummings as Director of Vote Leave in 2016, the coup was defeated though a loyalty pact with pivotal campaign staff agreeing ‘if Dom goes, we go too.’ Top advisers in the most crucial Downing Street units will have no doubt made their feelings clear this time around too.
Downing Street stripped of its Vote Leave components may well have acted with a very different resolve from the one seen at present. Negotiations overseen by Cummings and his Vote Leave compatriots can be guaranteed to have the maverick resolve to walk away. Without them, the EU may well be encouraged to take a riskier path.
That riskier path would not guarantee an extension, although the EU would be more likely to believe it would. A toxic combination. The prisoner’s dilemma of negotiation could see the bloc scrabbling for more than it would ever reasonably be expected to win and both sides left with less as a result. The more the EU questions UK resolve, the more likely they are to end up with a losing scenario.
There is a reason why the governments viewed favourably in British history have been those most willing to take less than popular decisions in the short term for the greater good. Change does not come easily. This Government’s ability to stand firm will ultimately decide whether Boris Johnson ascends to the Prime Ministerial category of Margaret Thatcher, or becomes another Ted Heath.
This week began to answer those vital questions of resolve. This is starting to look like a government that will not bend in the wind. On matters viewed as pivotal, Boris Johnson will stand resolute. And history will thank him for it.
Daily Telegraph - 29/05/20
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/29/uk-chief-negotiator-rules-fish-financial-services-brexit-deal/
UK chief negotiator rules out fish for financial services Brexit deal
EU and UK negotiators meet next week after the last round ended in mutual recrimination
Britain’s chief Brexit negotiator has ruled out any deal giving European boats access to UK waters in return for better conditions for British financial services in the EU’s Single Market.
The EU and the UK are deeply divided over fishing in free trade negotiations ahead of the next round of talks, which start on Monday, David Frost told peers in the European Union Select Committee on Thursday.
Brussels also rejected British calls for an improved system of regulatory recognition for the City of London than the “equivalence” model currently on offer, during the last round of negotiations. Those talks ended in deadlock and mutual recrimination with both sides urging each other to drop their red lines.
Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, and Phil Hogan, the EU’s trade commissioner, have both suggested that a “fish for financial services” compromise could be struck to break the deadlock between the two sides. Mr Hogan, who is Ireland's EU commissioner, said yesterday, "Perhaps the United Kingdom has come to the conclusion that there’s not going to be a deal.”
“I don’t think fisheries is something we are going to link to anything,” Boris Johnson’s top Brexit official said.
The Political Declaration, a joint document for the trade talks, said that a deal on fishing and financial services should be completed by July, ahead of the end of year deadline for the trade deal to be finalised.
Mr Frost said he thought the deadline would be missed and repeated that the UK would not ask for an extension to the transition period to allow time for more trade negotiations beyond December 31.
“I'm sure we'll carry on talking after June 30. Obviously, at some point, there will need to be a negotiation on the arrangements for 21, whether there's an agreement or not,” Mr Frost said.
“If there isn't an agreement that will reflect the fact that we're in the independent coastal state, and we'll control access, and fishing in our waters at that point.”
He added, “So, that is the reality that we have to contend with, if the EU doesn't evolve its position and try and reach an agreement with us.”
Britain wants a Norway-style fishing agreement with the EU with annual negotiations on fishing opportunities, based on zonal attachment. Zonal attachment is a system of evaluating fish stocks based on where fish currently are rather than the system of historic catch patterns that underpins the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy.
The EU wants a fishing agreement “under existing conditions” with reciprocal access to UK waters and no zonal attachment, which would benefit British fishermen. Michel Barnier has also ruled out annual negotiations.
Financial services represents a far larger part of the UK economy than fishing, which comprises less than 1 percent of GDP but the Government has promised that Brexit will mean the revival of the totemic industry.
700,000 tonnes of fish and shellfish are caught each year by EU boats in UK waters and about 70 percent of the catch by British boats is sold to the EU market.
“You may have to make concessions in areas like fishing in order to get concessions from us in areas like financial services,” Mr Varadkar said in January after Mr Hogan suggested a last minute compromise was possible.
In the last round of Brexit talks, UK negotiators demanded Britain be consulted on any equivalence decision on financial services. Equivalence can be withdrawn in as little as 30 days notice in some areas by the European Commission and without a right of appeal.
Mr Barnier described the British demand as a failure to understand the consequences of Brexit.
Micheal Gove, who spoke at the Select Committee with Mr Frost, said that the EU risked harming itself if it froze the City of London out of the Single Market.
Raising barriers to London’s deep and broad capital markets would drive up costs for investors in EU companies, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster said.
“It would be another example of potential self-harm on the EU’s part,” he said.
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