When MPs return to Parliament after the summer recess there will be less than two months until 31 October – the date the UK is set to leave the EU. Three years in, the options facing the UK are the same: leaving with a deal, leaving without a deal, seeking an extension or unilaterally revoking Article 50 to remain as a member of the EU. But Boris Johnson has said that if the UK is unable to leave with a renegotiated deal on 31 October then the UK will leave without a deal.
MPs looking to make their voices heard will have far fewer opportunities to do so this time around than they had in the run-up to the end of March this year, when the former prime minister was trying to pass her withdrawal agreement. Given the limited time available, this paper reaches the following conclusions about what is likely to happen over the next few months:
• It is very unlikely the UK will be able to leave the EU with a deal on 31 October:
even if Johnson were able to renegotiate some part of the current deal, there
would be very little time to pass the legislation needed to implement it. If Johnson
gets a deal, he will probably need an extension to complete ratification.
even if Johnson were able to renegotiate some part of the current deal, there
would be very little time to pass the legislation needed to implement it. If Johnson
gets a deal, he will probably need an extension to complete ratification.
• MPs can express opposition to no deal but that alone will not prevent it: the
government could ignore MPs’ opposition to no deal. Simply voting against it in
principle would not require the government to act, nor would it change the law
– both domestic and international. There is very little legislation the government
needs to pass before 31 October, and amending or voting it down would only.
limit the government’s powers in the event of no deal, not prevent no deal itself.
government could ignore MPs’ opposition to no deal. Simply voting against it in
principle would not require the government to act, nor would it change the law
– both domestic and international. There is very little legislation the government
needs to pass before 31 October, and amending or voting it down would only.
limit the government’s powers in the event of no deal, not prevent no deal itself.
• Backbenchers have very few opportunities to legislate to stop no deal: MPs may
want to repeat the process that led to the ‘Cooper Act’ in March, which forced the
government to seek an extension (although it had already requested an extension
before the Act came into law). But as the government controls most of the time in
the Commons there are limited opportunities for MPs to initiate this process, even
if the Speaker helps facilitate such a move. Cancelling the planned conference
recess alone will not necessarily create new opportunities.
want to repeat the process that led to the ‘Cooper Act’ in March, which forced the
government to seek an extension (although it had already requested an extension
before the Act came into law). But as the government controls most of the time in
the Commons there are limited opportunities for MPs to initiate this process, even
if the Speaker helps facilitate such a move. Cancelling the planned conference
recess alone will not necessarily create new opportunities.
• A vote of no confidence would not necessarily stop no deal: the process
governing no confidence motions under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011
has not been tested. If passed, it would trigger a 14-day period during which time
MPs could try to form a ‘government of national unity’. Failing this, there will be
a general election – but it is unclear what would happen if Johnson refused to
follow constitutional convention to resign if an alternative majority was possible.
This could risk dragging the Queen into politics.
governing no confidence motions under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011
has not been tested. If passed, it would trigger a 14-day period during which time
MPs could try to form a ‘government of national unity’. Failing this, there will be
a general election – but it is unclear what would happen if Johnson refused to
follow constitutional convention to resign if an alternative majority was possible.
This could risk dragging the Queen into politics.
• There is little time to hold a general election before 31 October: if either Boris
Johnson – with the intention of securing a mandate for no deal – or the opposition
push for a general election, they will need to act almost as soon as Parliament
returns from recess. Otherwise this risks an election after 31 October. An election
that runs over the Brexit deadline would cause major challenges for civil servants
and ministers.
Johnson – with the intention of securing a mandate for no deal – or the opposition
push for a general election, they will need to act almost as soon as Parliament
returns from recess. Otherwise this risks an election after 31 October. An election
that runs over the Brexit deadline would cause major challenges for civil servants
and ministers.
• A second referendum can only happen with government support: other than a
general election, some MPs view another referendum as the best way to break the parliamentary deadlock. But this requires legislation and government spending, both of which will need government support to achieve. There will also not be enough time to hold a referendum before 31 October, so the government would need to ask for an extension to Article 50.
general election, some MPs view another referendum as the best way to break the parliamentary deadlock. But this requires legislation and government spending, both of which will need government support to achieve. There will also not be enough time to hold a referendum before 31 October, so the government would need to ask for an extension to Article 50.
MPs and the government are preparing for a Brexit showdown in September and
October. But when Parliament overwhelmingly voted in favour of triggering Article 50, the legal default was set: if no deal is agreed, the UK leaves the EU without one. With the prime minister defining the 31 October deadline as “do or die”, and a simple choice between deal or no deal, it looks very difficult for MPs who are opposed to no deal to force a change of approach. Even if they can assemble a majority to do so, they may find few opportunities to make their move – and time is running out.
October. But when Parliament overwhelmingly voted in favour of triggering Article 50, the legal default was set: if no deal is agreed, the UK leaves the EU without one. With the prime minister defining the 31 October deadline as “do or die”, and a simple choice between deal or no deal, it looks very difficult for MPs who are opposed to no deal to force a change of approach. Even if they can assemble a majority to do so, they may find few opportunities to make their move – and time is running out.
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