Hello, and welcome to our pilot test for a new home.
We will test the water with a simple item drawn from the DT's data journalist who tells us that:
"...the implied probability of the UK leaving the EU without a deal to rise to more than 40 having been at less than 20 per cent as recently as April." (data from Oddstracker)
Boris has apparently described the chance of a no-deal Brexit as "vanishingly small", but this remains the default legal position. £2.1bn in additional funding has been made available by the treasury to prepare for this outcome.
He goes on to say:
"So far Mr Johnson has also refused to meet with his European Union counterparts until they agree to remove the Irish backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement, something which the EU has completely ruled out.
"Several EU leaders have expressed a desire to meet with Johnson and discuss the issue of Brexit, including French President Emanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, but Johnson has so far refused until the backstop is removed.…
"Mr Barnier has made it clear that the EU will not move on the issue of the Irish backstop, helping to drastically raise the odds of a no-deal scenario.
"This leaves the negotiations in a stalemate.
"The current Parliamentary arithmetic does not favour the Prime Minister….A number of backbench Tories have already indicated that they will vote down any motion for a no-deal Brexit…
"Following the anti-prorogation amendment, which saw 17 Conservative MPs rebel against the Government, it will be much harder for the Prime Minister to prorogue Parliament to get a no-deal Brexit.
"Even if Mr Johnson secures a revised Withdrawal Agreement from the EU without the backstop, he may still find it difficult to convince a bitterly divided Tory party to pass it."
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