Well, I have to say I didn't think he would do it, but not only has he made the request but the Queen didn't delay in delivering it.
But what does this mean in reality?
Parliament returns on 3rd September but it could be prorogued from as early as the 9th September and won't return until the Queen's speech on 14th October. That leaves Parliament exactly 4 days and Friday's are a non debate day, so effectively reducing the parliamentary time to three days.
On return on October 14th, Parliament would have 13 sitting days including two Fridays which limits real debate days to just 11.
However, convention dictates as follows:-
When the ceremony is complete, MPs return to the Commons Chamber and begin debating the contents of the speech. The debate usually takes place over six days, with each day being assigned to a policy area, such as ‘the economy’ or ‘home affairs’.
This means that the time from the 14th to 22nd October will be taken up with the debate on the Queen's speech and then I would assume that another day may be lost to a Queen's speech vote.
Its therefore likely that at best MP's would have just 7 sitting days to pass legislation to stop Brexit before Halloween.
Therefore, what are their options now?
1. Official VONC
This could now be brought forward as the main approach, but for the reasons the opposition dropped this route originally (due to the inability to agree on a GNU leader.) It could well fail again.
This is likely to resurface, and its now possible that the LibDum's and Cringe UK MP's might find it within themselves to support Corbyn or Corbyn might be forced into accepting a "unity" candidate.
However, it looks to me that Tory MP's are backing off this route, Phillip Hammond this afternoon strongly backed off voting against the government in a VONC and therefore numbers are likely to be extremely thin, possibly as low as two or three, likely Guto Bebb, Dominic Grieve and Ken Clarke.
However, there are independents dead set against Corbyn and at least 5 regular Labour Brexiteers who would counter this move, so unless there are a significant number of Tory MP's willing to commit suicide then it looks unlikely to succeed.
Should it be successful, convention dictates the PM should stand down if a new MP has the command of the confidence of the House, but if Boris refuses to step down then we are in grey constitutional areas.
This could result in requests to the Queen to demand the PM's resignation but that would be drawing the Queen completely into the fray.
2. Humble Address
Parliament could try this route to vote on removing the prorogation by means of a humble address. This requires a vote in both houses before the motion is put to the Queen to reverse her decision to prorogue.
My personal guess here is this is wasting very short parliamentary time and its likely the Queen's advisers have already considered this potential option. If she has given her permission to prorogue so quickly its likely she is not seeking additional time for advisers to consider this option as its already been discussed and decided.
I therefore think this route is unlikely to work and will be seen as highly unpopular for dragging the Queen into the debate centre stage.
3. Unofficial VONC
They could try a non formal VONC which would be likely to succeed more than a formal one. It would achieve expressing displeasure and a lack of confidence but little else. At the end of the day, if you can't win an official VONC then this is a very weak and poor second best and frankly a waste of time.
4. Legal Route 1 - Stop Prorogation
They can try the existing legal route. Most legal minds believe that the courts will be very wary of stepping into what is a political situation and there is little law to rely on as there is no written constitution and therefore nothing legally to really judge this against.
Any decision would be immediately challenged in the UK Supreme court and I would expect a case is being drawn up now by the Government and a time slot set aside for it.
The likely possibility of a temporary injunction preventing prorogation could occur until the Supreme court has sat, and this might allow parliament more time than it would be currently allowed by prorogation, potentially a lot more.
5. Legal Route 2 - Force The PM To Resign
There is the option that, having formed a GNU with a leader that commands the support of the Commons, but Boris refuses to resign as PM. They could challenge this in the courts but this again could take time but they have weeks while Parliament is prorogued to pursue it.
6. The Legislative Route
This remains as previous, with options to force the PM to request an extension or changing existing legislation.
The time line is now so short, changing existing legislation would appear to me to be all but impossible and all routes are subject to the same tactic of Lords filibustering. Given the length of Commons debates and the ability to filibuster in the Lords its highly likely that bills could be stopped from reaching their third reading.
Any bills in progress at the point of prorogation are automatically dropped and therefore would need to be completely restarted after prorogation and therefore subject to the same time limits.
The other complication created is that time wasted trying to get prorogation overturned in parliament could result in taking so much time that there is no time to legislate
My Conclusions
1. They have too little time
2. They have been completely wrong footed by this move
I can see this disending into opposition chaos, each will have their own ideas about what will be the most effective route. Corbyn will resurect the VONC with him as PM and the opposition may have to concede to that. However, doing so will likely stop Tory rebels and therefore likely to fail.
Any Tories will know that if they support ANY contrary government, they are resigning from the party and out at the GE which will follow shortly.
Finally, the EU can have no doubts that Boris is serious, and their position will play into this maths. Its horrendously complicated in the interplay but with the time limits on every route make it more likely that they will fracture and fail into recriminations and infighting.
That's just what you need in opposition when you are just about to go into an election isn't it?
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