Can No Deal be stopped?

Political journalists have not had a traditional silly season this month, where MPs switch off their phones and newspapers are full of party leaders posing awkwardly on their staycations.

Instead, as the new term looms, Westminster's big beasts are gearing up for what promises to be the final Brexit showdown: can no deal be stopped?

As Downing Street has "turbocharged" its preparations to leave the EU with or without a deal in just over two months, scores of MPs have been watching with growing alarm.

Their numbers have been swelled by the so-called "Gaukeward" squad of some 20 to 40 Tories - mainly former ministers now on the backbenches - who have been meeting since the dog days of Theresa May's government to plot ways to stop a no deal.

In fact the only questions in town are what mechanism they will use, together with Labour and other opposition parties, and whether they will succeed.

In theory, they have strong numbers: MPs voted against no deal by 400 votes to 160 back in March and, aided by Speaker John Bercow, have been ingenious in finding ways of wrong-footing the government. In practice, it looks like a tall order. With internal disagreements on tactics and little consensus on the eventual aim, many Tory rebels feel downbeat about their chances.

The rebel alliance has two broad options - one is passing or amending a law forcing the prime minister to ask the EU for an extension, as was done earlier this year by MPs led by Oliver Letwin and Yvette Cooper. The other is the nuclear option: a no confidence vote to topple the government.

For some senior Conservatives in the squad, the past four weeks have stiffened their resolve that Boris Johnson and his coterie are actually intent on leaving without a deal.

Warm words in Paris and Berlin did not hold out the prospect of reopening the withdrawal agreement. Despite his entreaties that the EU will eventually give in, the prime minister's letter to Donald Tusk on Tuesday demanding the abolition of the backstop in return for "flexible commitments", which are as yet unspecified, was regarded by his critics as the smoking gun.

"It's all part of the sham," a source from the Tory group told me. "We'd love to think there's a genuine strategy to get a negotiated outcome by 31 October but it's clear from who is pulling the strings and the letter to Tusk that they're trying to convince parliament there's a negotiating stance and preparing to blame Brussels when a deal doesn't come."

And yet the clearest option they have to stop it is regarded as too toxic. Jeremy Corbyn's suggestion that MPs trigger a no confidence vote, making him a caretaker prime minister in order to demand more time from Brussels in order to call an election, is, Tories admit, the most certain path to stopping no deal.

A few MPs, Guto Bebb and Dominic Grieve, are entertaining the idea, but too many are adamant they won't. Neither will the Lib Dems, who regard Jeremy Corbyn's "Remainer" credentials with deep suspicion.

Former chancellor Philip Hammond, who has been leading the charge in declaring that a no-deal exit would be an act of economic self-harm and a "betrayal" of what people voted for in 2016, has publicly denounced the idea, as have a string of other former ministers and independent MPs.

Rather than trying to cobble together a government of national unity - even if led by someone other than Mr Corbyn - for now Tories want to focus on using legislation to extend the Brexit deadline.

It's far from failsafe. MPs succeeded back in April by only one vote in forcing an extension and, crucially, Mrs May was willing to do so. This time, No 10 have made clear they will do all they can to stand firm.

Timing will also be key: the Labour leader has said he will support backbenchers in hijacking or bring their own laws. His office believes this will happen in early September before parliament rises for three weeks for the party conferences. If it fails, the theory goes, Labour can call a confidence vote in October as a last resort. Crunch time, then, for the rebels.

Downing Street is also banking on the group striking in early September. Conservative rebels have already forced the government to bring Northern Ireland legislation back to parliament in the first week. "If we get through that session, it will be very hard for them after that," a government source said.

No 10's legislative team is working though a list of draft laws due to come before parliament and rooting out any which are not absolutely essential to the legality of leaving on 31 October.

But some rebel Conservatives are wavering on whether the prime minister should have more time. One told me the group must wait until October - when he has been given maximum chance to get a deal, and the deadline is imminent. Boris Johnson has bought crucial time with his promise to offer EU leaders more details on the backstop within 30 days.

If the rebels are not prepared to make their move early, their options will be more limited.

Then there is the bigger schism about the aim of all this. The rebel alliance includes MPs who want to deliver Brexit, those who want to do so with a customs union, and those - mainly Labour MPs - holding out for a referendum and staying in the EU at all costs.

Conservative rebels are particularly sensitive to the charge that they are Remainers in disguise. Twenty of them wrote to Mr Johnson this summer urging him to get a Brexit deal, to which he responded by branding them EU "collaborators" who are weakening his hand by giving Brussels the impression that Brexit can be stopped.

Nonetheless, the prospect of forcing yet another Brexit extension on what one described as the "endless merry-go-round" is leading several former ministers to think efforts should now be focused on somehow forcing the prime minister to accept the current withdrawal agreement.

They know this is wildly optimistic, given it's unlikely all of Mr Johnson's cabinet would back it. Two dozen Labour MPs are said to be waiting in the wings to vote for a Brexit deal, but may ultimately baulk at the accusation they are coming to the Tories' rescue.

"The rebel alliance only agrees on one thing - stopping no deal and I don't think it's enough," one weary Tory rebel told me. "You need a destination and we haven't got one."

The next few weeks will be the ultimate test of whether age-old enmities between the parties can be overcome, whether Remainers can throw in their lot with Jeremy Corbyn and whether MPs are willing to blow up their careers for a greater cause. It will come down not just to numbers but which side is more determined. Mr Johnson says he will deliver Brexit "do or die". The rebels will need the same spirit.