Absolutely Not The Daily Troll-o-Graph

 The Russian economy could shrink by 7% next year, instead of the 2% growth that was forecast   The costs of occupying and rebuilding Ukraine mean a Russian victory is actually worse for Putin   In the long term, Russia's prospects for outside investment are absolutely dire Source CapX - 14/03/22 Link The invasion of Ukraine has placed Russia on the verge of bankruptcy. Interest rates have doubled, the stock market has closed, and the rouble has fallen to its lowest level ever. The military costs of war have been exacerbated by an unprecedented level of international sanctions, sustained by a large coalition of countries. Russian citizens, now unable to spend at IKEA, McDonald’s or Starbucks, are not allowed to convert any of the money they do have into foreign currency. Generous estimates suggest the Russian economy could shrink by 7% next year, instead of the 2% growth that was forecast before the invasion. Others say the drop could be as much as 15%. Such a fall would ...

 Self-congratulatory Brussels fails the test of statecraft on every count Source Daily Telegraph 10/03/22 Link The lowest common denominator prevails again in European diplomacy. Germany cannot yet bring itself to forgo Russian fossil energy until the end of the decade, seemingly whatever Vladimir Putin does to Mariupol, Sumi, or Kyiv today. The EU policy towards Russia fails the test of statecraft on every count. It smacks of business as usual and underestimates the intensity of public outrage across Europe. The measures agreed so far are disruptive without reaching the necessary shock and awe threshold for the Kremlin. They do not hurt enough to precipitate a revolt by the Russian high command or an internal coup by the kleptocracy as their world collapses. Europe is repeating the cardinal fallacy of calibrated sanctions through the ages. The Commission’s sub-plan to dial down imports of Russian gas by two-thirds before next winter is more to the point but lacks the credibility o...

 What sane country would view the current crisis and reject the obvious solution of turning to our own domestic resources? Source - Daily Telegraph - 09/03/22 Link At times of global conflict, politicians are often tempted to smear domestic opponents as unwitting allies of a foreign aggressor. Whatever the scale of the humanitarian crisis, there is always mileage in accusing others of having the wrong priorities and inadvertently aiding, through policy or propaganda, the common enemy. Unfair though such accusations often are, it behoves every elected politician in the western world to play their part in presenting a united front, especially now that the global economic effects of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine are being felt more severely each day. Nicola Sturgeon may have had a “good” pandemic, but she is having a much less comfortable time dealing with the implications of Russian belligerence. Specifically, her devolved government in Edinburgh is so ideologically committed ...

 World Bank warns a large-scale default is looming as western sanctions bite Source Daily Telegraph 10/03/22 Link Russia and Belarus are “mightily close” to default as western sanctions cripple their economies, the World Bank has warned. Carmen Reinhart, the development organisation’s chief economist, said both countries are now in “square default territory”, putting payments on about $40bn of external bonds at risk. “They're not rated by the agencies as a selective default yet, but mighty close,” she said. A large-scale default would be Russia’s first since the aftermath of the Bolshevik revolution in 1917. “I worry about what I do not see,” Ms Reinhart said. “Financial institutions are well-capitalised, but balance sheets are often opaque… there is the issue of Russian private sector defaults. One cannot be complacent.” Ratings agency Fitch has already cut Russia’s sovereign debt rating to “C”, deep in junk territory, warning a default is “imminent” as Moscow is increasingly froz...

McDonald’s Russian exit is a seminal moment, a final shattering of the utopian vision of consumerist peace Source - Daily Telegraph 09/03/22 Link It was one of the last great campaigns, a final Mad Men masterpiece before the art of TV advertisements was forever destroyed by Google and Facebook. Filmed in 1997, the year of Tony Blair’s Third Way, it starred Mikhail Gorbachev and his young granddaughter. Six years after the peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union, its former leader walks into a cyrillic-logoed pizza restaurant in Red Square, and is spotted by a Muscovite family, triggering an inter-generational political row with an eerie contemporary relevance. “Because of him we have economic confusion,” the grandfather claims. “Because of him, we have opportunity,” his son retorts. The argument goes on, entirely in Russian: “Political instability … freedom … complete chaos … hope.” The grandmother intervenes, arguing that “because of him we have many things … like Pizza Hut”, a state...

 Panel upheld 21 allegations against the former Speaker and ruled he should not be allowed a parliamentary security pass Source  - Daily telegraph - 08/03/22 Link John Bercow has been suspended from the Labour Party after a House of Commons investigation called him a "serial bully" and upheld 21 allegations against him. The former Speaker, who since leaving Parliament has become a Labour member, was found to have sworn at and belittled colleagues, smashed a mobile phone on a desk and lost his temper after a staff member told him he could not carry toothpaste in his hand luggage. The findings came following a 22-month investigation into claims against him dating back 12 years. Commons authorities examined claims Mr Bercow had bullied and harassed three staff members during his time as Speaker, including his own secretary and a clerk. The report’s recommendations include that Mr Bercow should be banned from holding a parliamentary security pass for life, preventing him having f...

 The EU is fortifying itself with remarkable speed for a new era of 'zero gas' from Russia SouRce - Daily Telegraph - 07/03/22 Link A Western oil embargo against Russia raises the geostrategic stakes exponentially. What was almost unthinkable last week looks almost unstoppable this week. Ukrainian resistance and outraged moral opinion in the democracies has changed the character of this war, and changed what the West is prepared to do. The White House is sending emergency missions to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to find extra barrels. The US is pushing for a quick deal with Tehran on nuclear proliferation to bring back Iranian crude. All normal diplomatic reservations are being set aside.  It is this – as much as comments by top US diplomat Anthony Blinken – that tells us Washington really is going for broke. You can hear the footsteps of the world's only real superpower bearing down fast.    The West has the strategic depth to endure the sudden loss of 4.3m barrels a...