Absolutely Not The Daily Troll-o-Graph

Luigi Di Maio has resigned as leader of the Five Star Movement (M5S), part of Italy’s ruling coalition, as he seeks to calm the turmoil within the party threatening the government’s survival. Di Maio, 33, had been under pressure to step down after losing more than 20 MPs, who either left or were kicked out, after the party formed an alliance with the centre-left Democratic party (PD) in September. Di Maio will retain his position as foreign minister. Vito Crimi, a member of the Italian senate, is to temporarily take over as leader until a party conference in March. “It is time to rebuild, an era closes today,” Di Maio said. “I worked to grow the movement and protect it from profiteers and traps along the way, even by making some tough and incomprehensible choices.” M5S has lost half of its supporters since scoring the largest share of the vote in national elections in 2018. It has performed dismally in local elections and is expected to be badly defeated in regional elections...

US President Donald Trump has decried climate "prophets of doom" in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where sustainability is the main theme. He called for a rejection of "predictions of the apocalypse" and said America would defend its economy. Mr Trump did not directly name the teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg, who was in the audience. Later, she excoriated political leaders, saying the world "in case you hadn't noticed, is currently on fire". Environmental destruction is at the top of the agenda at the annual summit of the world's decision-makers, which takes place at a Swiss ski resort. In his keynote speech, Mr Trump said that it was a time for optimism, not pessimism, in a speech that touted his administration's economic achievements and America's energy boom. Speaking of climate activists, he said: "These alarmists always demand the same thing - absolute power to dominate, transform and control ...

Groucho Marx once said in jest: Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others. This is now the serious dividing line in politics, between principles or values and pragmatism. Lets rewind to 2015. The Tories were a pro EU party with a Eurosceptic wing, but mainly pro EU. Labour were pro EU and the Limp Dim's were EU fanatics, as are the Greens, PC and the SNP. The entire political spectrum was to some degree pro EU on balance bar the only party created to break that stranglehold was UKIP.  After the 2015 GE and the offer of a referendum that won the election for the Tories, we held the referendum and as we know, Brexit won. All the major parties had campaigned for remain, The Limp Dim's, SNP, PC, Greens refused to accept the result, citing high principle that they knew better than the electorate. The Labour Party tried to triangulate the position and pretended to be Pro Brexit but it was self evident that their heart was nowhere near...

Voter Migration 2017-2019 1. Introduction The key driver of the December 2019 election result was the group of voters who chose to vote differently from 2017. Using polling data,  Electoral Calculus  has identified and analysed these voters to see which parties they switched to and from. Since Brexit was obviously an important factor in people's decisions, voters were also identified by how they voted in the EU referendum of 2016 (as Leavers, Remainers, or those who didn't vote then). The migration graphic below shows the results of the analysis. Each figure represents one per cent of those who voted in the 2017 general election, which is equivalent to about 300,000 actual voters. The colour of each figure indicates which party they voted for in 2017. Their shape represents how they voted at the EU referendum ('hand wave' for Leavers, 'feet astride' for Remainers, and a static figure for those too young or apathetic to have voted then). The ...

A Bit of homework today, the EU has published its negotiating stance with the UK as of 14th January. Its too long to post here in full, so here's a link to it. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/seminar-20200114-lpf_en.pdf

The election defeat last month requires serious consideration about how best to respond. Right-wingers in the Labour Party have been falling over themselves to administer the last rites to Corbynism and establishment media hacks are anticipating a return to the neoliberal consensus. How did we get here? The outcome of the 2015 general election was a shattering blow, a majority Tory government had been elected for the first time since 1992. But the gloom was lifted when Jeremy Corbyn secured enough nominations from MPs to be a candidate in the Labour leadership election. He offered a fresh approach, an end to austerity and an expansion of Labour Party democracy. I naively expected the MPs, who had supported one of the other candidates, to accept the democratic decision of the members in the tradition of the party’s broad church principles. Sadly, the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) had other ideas and set about sabotaging Jeremy’s leadership from day one. My naivety got the ...

It’s a grim winter’s day in Berlin, and the political climate matches the weather. Everywhere Angela Merkel looks there are storm clouds, as the values she has upheld all her career come under sustained attack. At the start of a new decade, Europe’s premier stateswoman suddenly seems to be on the wrong side of history. Shortly, the UK will leave the EU. A volatile US president is snubbing allies and going it alone in the Middle East. Vladimir Putin is changing the Russian constitution and meddling in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa. Trade tensions continue, threatening the open borders and globalised value chains that are the cornerstones of Germany’s prosperity. Ms Merkel, a former physicist renowned for her imperturbable, rational manner is a politician programmed for compromise. But today she faces an uncompromising world where liberal principles have been shoved aside by the law of the jungle. Her solution is to double down on Europe, Germany’s anchor. “I see the European Un...